DACA and California’s Future

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President Trump’s administration has announced the end of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which allowed some undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States as children to avoid deportation, obtain work permits, and continue their schooling. California is home to about 223,000 “Dreamers,” as DACA recipients are known, more than one-fourth of the national total. According to estimates cited by EdSource, about 70,000 Dreamers and other undocumented immigrants attend public colleges in California. The president gave Congress six months to come up with a legislative solution to address the issue before the decision takes full effect. Because California is home to a large share of the nation’s immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, changes in federal immigration policies are particularly important in the state.

In California, as in the rest of the nation, a central economic challenge over the next couple decades will be to ensure an adequately sized and skilled workforce to meet the demands of a growing economy.  This challenge is especially daunting in the face of unprecedented increases in the number of retirees. As the baby boomers—a large group that is highly educated—exit the labor market, California and the nation will be hard pressed to find an adequate supply of workers to replace them and help provide for their healthcare and other needs. According to the California Department of Finance, over the next 15 years, the number of people age 65 and over will increase by 3.4 million, while the number of young adults age 20 to 34 will decline by almost 200,000. Requiring the Dreamers to leave the country will deepen this decline. Many of the older adults, about one-third, have a bachelor’s or graduate degree. Largely as a consequence of this demographic certainty, PPIC has projected that the state will see a shortfall of 1.1 million workers with at least a bachelor’s degree by 2030. Were it not for highly educated immigrants, the skills gap would be even larger.

The solution to this demographic, economic, and educational challenge is to make sure that more young Californians acquire the skills necessary to replace those exiting the labor market and to ensure that California’s economy can continue to grow with high-skilled and high-wage jobs. Increasing the number of young Californians going to and graduating from college is essential to closing this workforce skills gap. Because DACA recipients must be high school graduates or attending school, the program helps increase the number of Californians who are on the educational trajectory we need. The large number of Dreamers in college is evidence that they hold promise for helping the state meet its future need for educated workers.

Learn more

Read Higher Education in California: Addressing California’s Skills Gap

Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center.

New CSU Admissions Policy Could Increase Access, Enrollment

Overcrowding at some California State University (CSU) campuses has had a serious effect on the system’s ability to increase the number of students graduating with bachelor’s degrees. This is an issue with broad implications for the state and for young Californians: PPIC research has shown that the CSU system will need to produce nearly half a million additional college graduates by the year 2030 to meet economic demand in California.

lack of space for new students is a problem at many csu compusesThe state’s most recent budget aims to alleviate overcrowding at CSU, a problem that stems from an enrollment policy dating back to 2000. Under this policy, campuses established local admissions criteria that went beyond systemwide requirements for high-demand academic programs like nursing, business, and psychology. Currently, 6 of the 23 campuses are what CSU calls “fully impacted,” meaning that admissions requirements for local students in every major are significantly higher than those required systemwide. At Fresno State, 32 of its 33 programs are impacted. With higher admissions requirements, impacted programs often turn CSU-eligible students away. However, the rest of CSU campuses have fewer than half of their academic programs impacted. Six campuses—Bakersfield, Channel Islands, Stanislaus, East Bay, Chico, and Dominguez Hills—have less than 10% of their academic programs impacted. Unfortunately, unlike the University of California system where eligible applicants to an oversubscribed campus are referred to open campuses, CSU applicants who were eligible systemwide but did not meet the admissions criteria of their chosen impacted major or campus were denied admissions and not referred to a non-impacted campus.

In 2015–16 alone, CSU estimates that the system turned away nearly 30,000 eligible applicants due to overcrowding. While this did not necessarily prevent all of these students from attending college (many are likely to have attended other four-year colleges or community colleges), the practice of denying admissions to eligible students creates an unnecessary barrier in the education pipeline. Students who begin their higher education at a community college, for example, are less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree.

The 2017–18 state budget requires that CSU change its admissions process. Under the new policy, campuses must give first priority to local students applying to impacted programs and must automatically redirect eligible applicants who are denied admission to similar programs at other CSU campuses that have space. Given that a recent study commissioned by the California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research found that nearly 41% of high school students are eligible for CSU systemwide admission—an increase of nearly 10 percentage points since 2007—the creation of a referral pool could provide students with additional information about nearby campuses that are not impacted, allow them to attend those campuses, and give them a chance to pursue the major of their choice. Furthermore, the creation of this referral pool could more efficiently disperse enrollments across the system’s campuses, increase capacity, and improve bachelor’s-degree attainment in California as a whole.

Learn more

Read center director Hans Johnson’s testimony about the workforce skills gap and CSU’s role in filling in.

Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center.