Interpreting California’s Latest SAT Scores

An increasing share of California students are taking the SAT. This is good news for California, suggesting that more and more students are preparing for college. Sixty percent of the high school graduating class of 2015 took the SAT, a much higher share than in the rest of the United States (41%). Moreover, SAT participation has been growing faster in California than in the rest of the nation.

Even though raw scores have declined, once we adjust for the increased share of graduates taking the SAT, the latest scores represent an improvement from a decade ago. On average, California’s graduating class of 2015 scored 1,492 out of 2,400 points on the SAT college admission tests—28 points lower than a decade ago, and 2 points higher than the national average. However, once we factor in the increase in participation over the past decade, California’s 2015 score actually represents an improvement compared to a decade earlier. As participation in the SAT increases, the mix of students taking the exam shifts towards those less academically prepared. In states with high average SAT scores, participation rates are very low, because the only students who participate tend to be very well prepared. On average, a 1 percentage point increase in participation is associated with a 3.4 point decrease in average performance. Given the 11 percentage point increase in participation among California high school seniors over the past decade, we would expect the state’s average SAT score to drop 10 points more than it did.

Latino students have experienced the largest increase in SAT participation. Over time, SAT participation has increased steadily among all major racial/ethnic groups—including Asian, white, Latino, and African American students. But the largest gain has been among Latino students. For instance, in the 2013–14 school year, 43 percent of Latino graduates took the SAT, up from 35 percent in 2005–06. (Graduation data for 2014–15 has not yet been released.)

Race/ethnicity-related performance gaps are changing. Asian students outperformed white students in the 2014–15 school year by 11 points, reversing a trend in which whites were the higher scorers. The gap between African Americans and whites has narrowed over time. In the 2014–15 school year, white students scored 295 points higher, on average, than African American students and the score gap has decreased from 317 points in the 2005–06 school year. However, the Latino-white gap has increased slightly—not very surprising given the huge increase in Latino students’ participation in the SAT.

Parental education level, family income matters more now. Parental education and family income are closely related to SAT performance. In 2014–15, students whose parents have bachelor’s degrees scored, on average, 1,601 points—200 points higher than students whose parents have only a high school diploma. Over time this gap has widened, mostly because students whose parents have graduate degrees are scoring higher on the SAT. There is also a widening performance gap connected to gaps in family income, particularly at the upper end of income distribution. For instance, the performance gap between students whose families make more than $200,000 (roughly the top 10 percentile) and those from families earning $60,000 to $80,000 (roughly the median household income) widened from 172 points in 2007 to 251 points in 2014.

The increase in SAT participation, especially among groups that are underrepresented in higher education, is good news for California. At the same time, the continuing gaps in performance represent an ongoing challenge that must be addressed, especially given California’s changing demographics.

Chart source: (TOP) National Center for Education Statistics, College Board, 2005–14. Chart notes: (TOP) Participation rate is based on the projection of high school graduates by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), and the number of seniors who took the SAT in each state. Participation varies widely across states and can be partially explained by state policies. For instance, all public high school juniors in Maine have been required to take the SAT since 2006. Similarly, since 2011, Delaware has made the SAT available to all public high school juniors. And, starting with the class of 2014, all juniors in District of Columbia public schools take the SAT.
Chart source: (MIDDLE) College Board, 2014–15.
Chart source: (BOTTOM) College Board, 2014–15. Chart note: (BOTTOM) Orange vertical line indicates the College Board’s College and Career Ready (CCR) benchmark.

Is College the Answer to Income Inequality?

In both California and the nation, income inequality is at or near record levels. Educational attainment is by far the single most important determinant of an individual’s income. A key question, then, is whether improvements in educational outcomes can reduce inequality. In a recent commentary for EdSource, we conclude that increases in college completion will increase wages, but will not significantly narrow the income gap. Here’s why:

College graduates earn a lot more than workers with less education. For example, workers with a bachelor’s degree earn 57 percent more on average than similar workers with only a high school diploma. But the range in wages for college graduates is much greater than the range for less educated workers. For example, among workers with a graduate degree, the top wage earners (those in the 75th percentile) earn $33 more per hour than those at the bottom of the wage distribution (25th percentile). Wage gaps are much lower among less educated workers – only $11 among workers with a high school diploma. Moreover, during the past three decades wage gaps have increased dramatically among college graduates. The large and growing variation in wages among college graduates leads to higher inequality.

This does not mean we should abandon policies to increase college enrollment and completion. Inequality at relatively high wages is better than low wages for everyone, and improvements in educational attainment will lead to higher incomes on average. But don’t expect to substantially reduce income inequality simply by increasing the rate of college graduation.

Ready for College?

California needs more college graduates than it is currently producing. Part of the problem has been a lack of college readiness among the state’s high school graduates. Fortunately, recent trends in college preparation provide some good news. By several measures, a large and growing share of the state’s high school graduates are ready for college-level work. Indeed, many of them have successfully completed college-level courses even while still enrolled in high school.

New data on Advanced Placement (AP) exams are especially encouraging. AP courses are college-level courses in more than 30 subjects offered in high schools throughout the country. AP exams determine whether a student has attained college-level proficiency in the course, and AP exam passage rates are a meaningful measure of college preparation. Many colleges accept AP exams for college credit, and research shows that AP students outperform other students in college. Indeed, students who earn AP credits graduate at higher rates overall and often perform better in subsequent courses in the same field.

California’s high school graduates outperform their peers in the rest of the country on AP exams. In 2013, more than one in four California high school graduates (26.9%) passed at least one AP exam sometime during high school, compared to one in five in the nation as a whole. Among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, California high school graduates ranked sixth highest. Moreover, the share of graduates successfully completing an AP exam is going up fast in California—higher than in the rest of the nation. Between 2003 and 2013, the share of high school graduates passing at least one AP exam increased 9.6 percentage points in California, compared to 7.9 percentage points for the entire nation. California has a higher share of graduates taking AP exams than does the nation as a whole (45.6% versus 35.0%), with passage rates among AP exam takers slightly higher in California (59.0% versus 57.4%).

Other measures of college readiness also show progress. More students are taking the college preparatory courses (known as the “a–g” courses) required for admission to the University of California (UC) and the California State University (CSU). The latest data from the California Department of Education show that 38.3 percent of public high school graduates in California took the a–g courses in 2011–12, up from 34.6 percent in 2001–02 and from 32.3 percent in 1993–94. Gains in college prep work have been especially impressive among the state’s Latino high school graduates, who now make up almost half of all high school graduates. Among Latino graduates, the share taking a–g courses increased from 21.8 percent in 2001–02 to 28.0 percent in 2011–12. Increases in college readiness would be even better news if our state was responding with policies to meet the growing demand for college. But it’s not. Only the top eighth of high school graduates are eligible for UC and only the top third are eligible for CSU—according to eligibility thresholds that were set more than 50 years ago. Given the increasing shares of high school students who are well prepared for college, some reconsideration of those thresholds is long overdue.

If California is to meet the demand for educated workers, it needs to produce more college graduates. Making room for these highly capable students—by increasing the share of high school graduates eligible for the University of California and the California State University systems—would improve the well-being of our state and the lives of these young Californians.

Chart sources: PPIC calculations based on College Board data.