Category: Delta

Drought Watch: How Much Do Recent Rains Matter?

This is part of a continuing series on the impact of the drought.

Drought-parched Northern California had a welcome bit of rain during the first week of February. An “atmospheric river”—a meteorological phenomenon that funnels tropical moisture from the west Pacific into California—produced prodigious amounts of rainfall. In the central Sierra Nevada more than 10 inches of rain fell in just three days. More than 20 inches of rain were measured in the Russian River watershed—an amount greater than the annual average rainfall for the City of Sacramento. Some rivers in the North Coast and Sierra Nevada that were at record low levels on February 1 rose to record highs on February 9.

Drought’s over, right?

Not even close.

Still, it is important to acknowledge how helpful this rainfall was. Small towns like Willits, which were facing emergency drought measures to maintain drinking water, got a much-needed boost to their dwindling water supplies. Folsom Reservoir, down to just 160,000 acre-feet of water before the storm (17% of reservoir capacity), added an additional 100,000 acre-feet, which will help cities in the Sacramento area. Several salmon species starting to make their way to the sea got a welcome boost down the rivers. The Delta, which was becoming as salty as it had ever been in any period in recent memory, received a pulse of fresher water. And there was the psychological boost that comes from no longer being the driest year on record.

But this recent rainfall hardly dented the drought. This year is currently the third driest on record, after the two great dry years in California history: 1923-24 and 1976-77. What’s more, this third-driest year follows two fairly dry years. And California is in a statewide drought. The bulk of the rain fell north of San Francisco, offering no relief to the very driest portions of the state and leaving most of the state’s reservoirs unchanged.

In addition, it was a very warm storm, providing little in the way of improved snowpack—normally an important way to store water until spring. And because the rainfall was so intense over such a short period of time, most of it flowed off the hillsides and into streams rather than recharging groundwater.

While impressive in the intensity and amount of precipitation, this storm did little to alter the state’s drought picture. Things may still change, but given that our rainy season has only about six weeks left in it, the odds are against much improvement.

Researchers have noted that when we think about climate, we are influenced by the weather. As John Steinbeck pointed out in East of Eden, if it is wet, Californians tend to think it has always been so and when it is dry, we forget about the wet. Our climate in 2012–2014 has been dry, but our weather, at least in early February in Northern California, has been very wet.

Drought Watch: Lessons from the Past

This is part of a continuing series on the impact of the drought.

As California’s drought crisis unfolds, there will be calls from many quarters for extraordinary actions to help reduce the economic and social costs to communities and sectors at risk. California’s leaders in Sacramento, Washington, D.C., and around the state will need to weigh the pressure to act against the risk of making snap decisions that provide short-term relief yet have much higher long-term costs. As I describe in a commentary for the San Francisco Chronicle – written with PPIC adjunct fellow and UC Davis Professor Jay Lund – water agencies have fallen into this trap when responding to some past droughts. For instance, excessive pumping from the Delta during the 1987–92 drought contributed to the establishment of some invasive species that have plagued management of this system ever since.

Fortunately, there are also positive lessons from past droughts that can help guide today’s actions. One is that a water market – which allows those with relatively ample supplies to lease water to those who don’t – can significantly reduce costs to cities, farms, and the environment. The governor has called for steps to make this kind of trading easier. Another lesson is that communities that diversify their supply sources and establish stronger linkages with neighboring water systems are better able to weather droughts. Parts of the state that are out ahead on this – including Southern California and much of the Bay Area – are in better shape today thanks to these investment.

Drought Watch: Drought Declarations and Water Policy

This is part of a continuing series on the impact of the drought.

As this year unfolds, California will have to come to grips with the significant consequences of the drought emergency declared by Governor Brown. Drought Watch will be a regular feature on this blog, tracking the drought and its policy consequences.

As droughts go, this one is both brutal and unprecedented. We are in the grips of a “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge,” a term coined by Daniel Swain of Stanford University for the high-pressure area that has been pushing storms to the north of us for over a year now. Coupled with the low rainfall and warm temperatures over the previous two years, this dry period is impressive.

Rain and snow in the Sierra Nevada—the state’s most important source of water— are at historic lows, passing our benchmark dry years of 1976–77. Statewide, reservoirs are at near-record lows. In many areas, soil moisture—a critical indicator of the health of our forest and agricultural soils—is as low as it’s ever been for this time of year. Perhaps the most significant indicator, flow in rivers, is grim, setting unprecedented records for low flows during January. Both low soil moisture and record low river flows tell us that we may be witnessing a slowly unfolding ecological train wreck from which it will take many years to recover.

Already we are seeing dramatic proposals for water rationing in communities that failed to diversify their sources of drinking water. California’s recession-proof farm community is unlikely to be drought-proof. Orchard crops—California’s famous fruits and nuts—will be especially vulnerable. The drought will also increase pressure on already over-tapped groundwater basins in the San Joaquin Valley and the Central Coast.

History teaches us a few key lessons about drought. First, as the governor says, he can’t make it rain. He also cannot produce water where it isn’t, though he can make it easier to move water from one place to another. The declaration of an emergency gives the administration and the State Water Resources Control Board, the body that regulates water rights and sets flow and water quality standards, some additional flexibility to facilitate voluntary water transfers and—if things get dire enough—to decide who gets water in an emergency.

The second lesson is that natural disasters often spur longer-term policy changes. That will undoubtedly be the case this year, since major water policy issues are teed up for debate and decisions. The drought will influence our thinking about solutions to the Delta, our chronic overdraft of groundwater, and our struggle to balance water supply reliability and ecosystem health throughout the state.

A crisis can be useful in stimulating action. The challenge for the governor is to ensure that it leads to good policy that paves the way for a better water future—and stays away from short-term, expedient fixes. While popular in a crisis, these can make it harder to manage water when the rains return . . . and they will return, eventually.

Beyond the Drought: 10 Big Changes Ahead for California Water

These days, all water news in California is focused on the weather. After two successive dry years, this year’s rainy season has yet to make a decent showing. Unless the skies open soon, the state seems firmly headed for a major drought, with serious implications for the farm economy, some water-scarce communities, and the fish and other species that depend on our rivers and streams.

Periodic droughts are inevitable in California, given the state’s highly variable climate, and many scientists expect such extreme events to become more frequent with climate change. An essential part of water management in California is preparing for this inevitability—with multi-pronged strategies that include water marketing, groundwater banking, conservation, and investment in non-traditional supplies like recycled wastewater. Each drought provides an opportunity to get better at stretching scarce supplies and reducing the economic hardship caused by water scarcity, as PPIC’s California Water Myths report points out.

I recently wrote a piece—with Jay Lund, PPIC adjunct fellow and UC Davis professor—for the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences’ California WaterBlog that highlights 10 other inevitable changes in store for California water. These changes range from vulnerable levees and uncertain water supply conditions in the Delta to deteriorating groundwater basins to the shrinking Salton Sea. To minimize hardship and disruption, most of the items on our top 10 list will—like droughts—require significant preparation and planning. This is often hard to do, given the tradeoffs and costs of most water management solutions. But we think that preparation is the best way to reduce the pain and develop a water policy that supports the kind of state Californians want, rather than wishfully thinking that California can avoid change.