Month: September 2014

Who Are California’s Independent Voters?

The partisan composition of California’s electorate continues to evolve as an increasing number of voters register as independent or decline-to-state. Today, independents make up 21 percent of the electorate, while Democrats make up 43 percent and Republicans 28 percent. Since 2006, the share of voters registering as independent has increased 2 points, while Republican registration has declined 6 points and Democratic registration has not changed. Looking back further, we see that independent registration has more than doubled since 1994 (10% to 21%), while Democratic registration has declined 6 points and Republican registration is down 9 points.

What do we know about independent voters in California?

Among independents considered likely to vote by the PPIC Statewide Survey, about three in 10 identify themselves as liberal and the same number say they’re conservative. Four in 10 say they are middle-of-the-road. About four in 10 independent likely voters say they lean toward the Democratic Party, while about three in 10 lean toward the Republican Party. Three in 10 say they lean toward neither major party.

Given these party leanings, it may not be surprising that independent likely voters often agree with Democrats on issues that divide voters along party lines. For example, 77 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of independents are in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage. Republicans are opposed (55% oppose, 41% favor). And 81 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independents are in favor of taxing the wealthy, while 68 percent of Republicans are opposed. But on other issues that divide partisans, independents are themselves split. For example, while strong majorities of partisan likely voters fall on each party’s side of the debate over the size of government (Democrats: 63% higher taxes and more services; Republicans: 79% lower taxes and fewer services), independent likely voters are divided (51% lower taxes and fewer services, 44% higher taxes and more services).

No matter where they stand on issues and ideologies, independent likely voters tend to have unfavorable views of political parties. Solid majorities have unfavorable opinions of the Democratic Party (59%, 38% favorable) and the Republican Party (73%, 25% favorable), and 41 percent have an unfavorable opinion of both parties.

These weaker ties to the major parties may help explain why independents make up a disproportionate share (30%) of those we consider infrequent voters. Will they turn out this November? In an election year in which only about half of independents (49%) say they are closely following news about gubernatorial candidates, this is an open question for all contenders on the ballot.

Drought Watch: Rethinking Urban Water Pricing

This is part of a continuing series on the impact of the drought.

The California Water Resources Control Board adopted a statewide policy last month requiring local agencies to implement drought plans, including restrictions on outdoor water use. Local agencies have responded in a variety of ways. Some have imposed mandatory cutbacks while others are still only asking their customers to make voluntary cutbacks. Mandatory water use restrictions can be more effective and, according to the July PPIC Statewide Survey, 75 percent of Californians say they strongly favor them. So why aren’t more water agencies enacting mandatory cutbacks during this crisis?

Last month, Jay Lund—a professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis and an adjunct research fellow at PPIC— outlined some of the factors that might cause local agencies to shy away from mandatory restrictions. One important factor is that when conservation measures work, agencies sell less water and their revenues fall. But the costs of providing water services do not decrease as much, so agency balance sheets can end up in the red. As a result, investments in system maintenance and upgrade generally take a hit, and agencies often have to increase rates. This sends a confusing signal to customers, who just did what was asked of them.

There is an alternative: drought pricing. Charging more per gallon during drought years provides an additional conservation incentive and ensures that agencies can cover costs while they are selling less water. According to a June survey by the State Water Resources Control Board, only 4 percent of urban agencies have enacted drought pricing strategies. The city of Roseville is one community using the drought pricing tool, which was adopted—and vetted with customers—before the drought hit. In June, Roseville implemented a temporary 15 percent drought surcharge while also mandating a 20 percent reduction in water use.

Like most things that alter the status quo, drought pricing policies require effective communication with ratepayers. Agencies need to emphasize the need for higher prices alongside increased conservation during droughts to ensure customer buy-in. But a big advantage of a drought pricing policy is that customers understand in advance that prices need to go up to keep their water system solvent, rather than feeling blindsided by a rate increase after the fact. While they require additional effort—and advance planning—by local agencies, drought pricing policies result in better financials and customer relations while contributing to the primary goal of reducing water use during times of scarcity.