Month: June 2017

Video: Pessimism about Nation’s Direction

Californians have grown more pessimistic about the direction of the nation and the US economy since the beginning of the year, the May PPIC Statewide Survey shows. Underscoring that sentiment: just 27 percent of residents approve of the way President Trump is doing his job. Only 26 percent approve of Congress—a 10 point decline from March.

Researcher David Kordus presented these and other key findings at a survey briefing in Sacramento last week. On other federal issues, the survey found that most Californians disapprove of the House health care bill, and half expect negative effects from increased immigration enforcement.

Californians are feeling better about the state of their state by some measures: a solid majority favor Governor Brown’s budget plan, and fewer adults than in past years see the state budget situation as a big problem. But the state faces important challenges. Housing is one of them, with 59 percent of all adults saying affordability is a big problem in their part of the state. And solid majorities of Californians say the gap between rich and poor is getting larger. Majorities support state action to address these issues.

Learn more

Read the PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government
Find out more about the PPIC Statewide Survey

Accountability Reports Leave Some Students Out

The State Board of Education took initial steps at its May meeting toward developing accountability measures for alternative schools. These schools serve mostly high school juniors and seniors who leave their regular school because of behavioral or academic problems. About 300,000 students attended an alternative school in 2013‒14. In my 2016 report, Accountability for California’s Alternative Schools, I found that indicators used for the state’s main accountability program can misrepresent the successes of alternative schools. Students generally stay in alternative schools for a short time—less than half a school year on average—and annual data cannot accurately measure the gains they make. The board created a task force in 2016 to identify better measures of performance for these schools. At its May meeting, it took action to define which schools may participate in the alternative accountability program.

The board decided to exclude alternative students from district-level data in the state’s new K-12 “dashboards” while the alternative system is being developed. The dashboards report school and district performance on key indicators in the state’s accountability system, using colors to signify relative outcomes. Blue signals high performance, followed by green, yellow, and orange. Red indicates the lowest rank.

The dashboards also exclude charter school students. But excluding certain students from district performance assessments gives a rosier picture of student outcomes, which can lead to an inaccurate picture of district progress. In my 2014 report, Designing California’s Next School Accountability Program, I found that accountability programs rely on valid comparisons across schools and districts—after all, one way to understand performance is to compare how well students are doing across similar schools or districts.

The chart illustrates that excluding alternative and charter school students affects some district results significantly. The light blue reflect data used in the state dashboards. The dark blue bars use district data that include all students, as reported in the state department’s data portal (known as Dataquest). The chart shows that graduation rates for some of the state’s ten largest K‒12 districts look significantly higher in the dashboard data than in the data representing all students. The dashboard graduation rate in four districts—Fresno, Long Beach, Los Angeles and San Bernardino—is at least 5% higher than the actual district graduation rate.

The board’s policy can make the dashboard data misleading. For instance, Long Beach Unified achieves a graduation rate of 89.3% using the dashboard data, receiving a “green” rating. San Diego and San Francisco also are ranked as green. But when all students are included in the rates, Long Beach’s graduation rate falls to 84.2%, which would give it a yellow ranking, while San Diego and San Francisco would retain their green rating.

It’s good news that the board is taking steps to create an alternative accountability system, but it’s important to understand that for now, many students are excluded from district dashboard data. That’s significant information for parents and the public to know when using the dashboard to evaluate a district’s performance.

Learn more

Read the report Accountability for California’s Alternative Schools

UC May Struggle to Meet Transfer Requirement

Governor Brown’s May budget proposal withholds $50 million from the University of California (UC), which must undertake a series of reforms to restore the funds. One requirement—the result of a deal made during the 2015 budget process—is that UC meet its fall 2017 target of enrolling only two new in-state freshmen for every in-state transfer student, both systemwide and at each campus (except Merced). In 2016, the system enrolled 2.3 freshmen for every transfer student. The 2:1 target is intended to increase the number of transfer students served by UC. But reaching this freshmen-to-transfer ratio while responding to growing freshmen demand could prove very difficult this year and in the future.

UC has made progress in enrolling more transfer students but has not come closer to meeting its target ratio. In the last year, UC enrolled almost 2,000 more transfer students, a 13% increase and the biggest jump in more than a decade. However, UC also enrolled more than 5,000 additional freshmen compared with the previous year (a 17% increase)—leaving the freshmen-to-transfer ratio slightly higher.

In recent years, demand to attend UC has increased much faster for freshmen than for transfers. This year, there are more than 3.5 freshmen applicants for every transfer applicant. Since 2011, freshmen applications have increased by 31%, while transfer applications have declined by 1%.

Can UC attain a 2:1 ratio while responding to growing demand for freshmen slots in 2017? To do so, the system would need to draw more transfer students from a smaller applicant pool—especially if officials also plan on increasing freshmen enrollment. Compared to last year, 1,000 fewer in-state transfer students and 6,000 more in-state freshman applied. This problem is particularly acute at Santa Cruz and Riverside, which enrolled more than 3.5 freshmen for every transfer student in 2016 and may not meet the 2:1 goal this year.

UC may also have trouble meeting its target freshmen-to-transfer ratio in the future. If the number of freshmen applicants keeps increasing while the number of transfer applicants stagnates, UC may have to turn away more in-state freshmen applicants to meet its goal. To increase the quantity and quality of future transfer pools, the system is working to expand existing transfer agreements between UC campuses and nearby community colleges. In addition, UC’s new Transfer Pathways program helps prepare community college students in the most popular majors to transfer as juniors to any UC campus. The new program could start showing results in the next couple of years.

Though transfer demand at UC is sluggish, transferring is still a popular path for students elsewhere. California State University (CSU) has seen 14% growth in transfer applications since 2011 and, in 2016, received over 106,000 transfer applications (about three times as many as UC). UC could look to a recent success at CSU, which worked with the California Community Colleges to develop the Associate Degree for Transfer (ADT). Like the Transfer Pathways program, the ADT prepares community college students for junior-level entry at any CSU campus. But the ADT goes further by guaranteeing that students will only need 60 more units at CSU to graduate from their major. It also guarantees students admission to the CSU system and offers priority consideration at a local CSU campus. The ADT is quickly becoming a popular option, with 30,000 ADTs awarded in 2015–16 alone. Of course, students are considering other factors, such as cost, distance, eligibility, and availability when choosing where to apply for transfer. Guaranteed pathways to a degree and priority consideration in admission, however, are likely to entice potential transfers.

It will be difficult for UC to achieve its 2017 transfer requirement, especially at Santa Cruz and Riverside—putting into question whether the system will receive the $50 million withheld in the governor’s budget proposal. With increasing demand for freshmen slots, UC must work to increase the pool of transfer applicants to meet both the 2:1 goal and freshmen demand going forward.

Learn more

Read the report Higher Education in California: Expanding College Access
Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center