Category: Political Landscape

Californians’ Views on Taxes

As Tax Day approaches, how are Californians feeling about their state and local tax system? In our March PPIC Statewide Survey, most Californians see the system as fair. But when asked about their personal state and local tax burden, a majority of residents (56%) said they pay more than they should. A little over one-third of Californians (37%) said they pay the right amount in state and local taxes, while only 4% said they pay less than they should.

Opinions about taxes differ across political and demographic groups. Republicans are more likely than independents, and far more likely than Democrats, to feel they pay more than they should in taxes. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks are the most likely to feel they pay more than they should in state and local taxes.

This year’s filing deadline reminds residents of their tax burden in the midst of an election year which will likely see Californians vote on state and local tax measures. In our survey, we found that Californians who feel they pay more than they should in taxes have different preferences for the size of government and the extension of Proposition 30 income tax on earnings over $250,000. Indeed, an overwhelming majority of Californians who feel they pay the right amount in taxes say they favor extending the Proposition 30 income tax increase to fund health care and education (80%). But less than half of those who feel they pay more than they should in taxes say the same (49%).

Perceived personal tax burden also appears to affect support for smaller government. Half of Californians who feel they pay more than they should say they prefer a smaller government with fewer services, compared to only a quarter of those who feel they pay the right amount in taxes (51% vs. 25%). Finally, when we asked if most Americans demand more from the government than they are willing to pay for, most Californians—whether they feel they pay too much in taxes or the right amount—said yes.

Though Tax Day reminds us of our personal tax burden every year, this annual reminder may take on added significance when Californians head to the polls this year to have their say on specific tax and spending measures.

Video: Broadening California’s Exclusive Electorate

Californians who vote tend to be older, white, college educated, affluent, and homeowners. When asked to choose, these “likely voters” identify themselves as “haves” rather than “have nots.” Nonvoters tend to be younger, Latino, less likely to be college educated and less affluent than likely voters, and renters; they generally identify with the have nots.

This divide has particular significance in California, where voters make important policy decisions through the initiative process—and at a time when economic inequality is a major theme, according to Mark Baldassare, author of a new report, California’s Exclusive Electorate: Who Votes and Why It Matters. Baldassare is PPIC president, CEO, and director of the PPIC Statewide Survey. He presented an overview of his report before a Sacramento audience this week.

The report concludes that, in addition to electoral process reforms that will make voting easier, broader changes are needed to expand the electorate. Among them: citizenship drives to engage foreign-born residents, increased economic mobility, and changes in federal immigration policies.

An expert panel took up these issues in a discussion moderated by John Myers, Sacramento bureau chief of the Los Angeles Times. Myers asked if there a ’secret sauce’ to motivate people to vote.”

Mindy Romero, founder and director of the California Civic Engagement Project at UC Davis, said that there’s no single solution. But civics education is important, she said, and so is targeted outreach that recognizes the unique experiences and needs of underrepresented groups.

Matthew Harper, state assembly member, used his involvement in Junior State to illustrate the importance of nonprofit organizations in showing young people how they can affect government.

Ben Allen, state senator, noted the shrinking number of reporters in Sacramento and said that more engaged media coverage would help bring issues home to voters.

Myers pointed out the vicious cycle at work in many elections. Campaigns spend their resources targeting the relatively small pool of likely voters, who will reliably turn out to support them. A much broader group of potential voters is not engaged and—as expected—this group fails to vote.

But, Allen said, in this presidential election we could be seeing the flip side of the low-turnout election that draws only the most involved voters. “Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are driving new people to the polls that folks have not traditionally reached out to and engaged with,” he said. This presents “a scary but exciting set of possibilities” for reaching out to new sections of the electorate.

Video: Californians Weigh in on Presidential Race

The strong partisan divisions prominent in the nation this election year are also evident in California, the latest PPIC Statewide Survey shows. As the primary nears, Democrats and Republicans are deeply divided in their views about the appropriate role and size of government. Dean Bonner, the PPIC survey’s associate director, presented these and other key survey findings in Sacramento last week.

Bonner noted that preferences among California’s likely voter in the upcoming presidential primary are similar to those seen in many states that have already voted. Among Democratic likely voters—including independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary—48% support Hillary Clinton and 41% support Bernie Sanders. Most young voters support Sanders and most over age 45 support Clinton. Clinton leads among Latinos, women, and those who describe themselves as politically middle of the road, while Sanders leads among men and voters who describe themselves as very liberal.

Donald Trump leads the Republican field with 38%, followed by Ted Cruz with 27% and John Kasich with 14%. Bonner noted evidence in the survey of discontent with the status quo in the nation—signs that may have fueled the candidacies of “outsiders” in both major parties. A majority of likely voters—63%—say the nation is going in the wrong direction and 47% say the US will have bad times financially in the coming year. And Congress’ job performance gets a very low rating—across party lines. Notably, Republicans are more likely to approve of President Obama (20%) than they are to approve of the Republican-led Congress (11%).

Video: Congressman Kevin McCarthy in Conversation

The majority leader of the US House of Representatives ticked off the issues in an ambitious agenda that he and Congressman Paul Ryan, the House Speaker, are working on in Congress. Congressman Kevin McCarthy told a Sacramento audience that they include national security, the economy, tax reform, poverty, regulatory reform, innovation in government, and water.

McCarthy shares a sense of urgency with Senator Dianne Feinstein about getting a water bill through Congress this year. But he made clear in his conversation with Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of PPIC, that he and the senator—who spoke to a PPIC audience last month—differ in their policy priorities. His include building more water storage and pumping more water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.

McCarthy said he thought a water bill could be passed this year, perhaps in a bill that addresses the water problem in Flint, Michigan.

“I think there’s a window of opportunity,” he said.

When the conversation turned to the presidential race, McCarthy was asked to compare two political outsiders—presidential candidate Donald Trump and former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. McCarthy said both tapped frustration in the electorate and both brought new voters to the process.

“When I went to the rallies with Arnold it was amazing,” he said. “There’d be 7,000 people in Bakersfield. Lived there my whole life, but I’d see people I’d never met before.”

Today, he said, “the country feels as though the government is not listening to them, they’re divided on all sides, and they’re just not going to take it anymore.”

“I don’t believe it’s a bad thing at all. I believe it’s good.”

Video: California’s Voter Turnout Problem

Voter turnout in California has been declining—it reached record lows last year, raising concerns about the state’s democratic process. PPIC research fellow Eric McGhee told a Sacramento audience last week that turnout in California has not only dropped in absolute terms but has fallen behind that of other states. While participation in fall presidential elections has been holding steady, turnout is on the decline in midterm elections—when the state elects a governor and other statewide officials—and, to some extent, in presidential primaries.

A big part of the problem is California’s voter registration rate, said McGhee, who coauthored the new report Putting California’s Voter Turnout in Context. It has not changed significantly, though it should have been climbing, as it has in other states.

California has been working hard to make the voting and registration processes as easy as possible, and other policy changes are under discussion. Will they result in higher turnout? They may help, but they aren’t panaceas, McGhee said. Ongoing mobilization efforts will be needed to motivate more people to cast a ballot.

Most Californians Want More Gun Regulation

Following the terrorist attack in San Bernardino, we checked in on Californians’ attitudes toward gun laws and found that a solid majority (62%) say the government does not do enough to regulate access to guns. The share of Californians expressing this opinion today is close to the record high in January 2013 (65%), shortly after the mass shooting in Newtown, Connecticut. Since we began asking this question in 2000, majorities have consistently said the government does not do enough.

Since 2000, the federal assault weapons ban has expired and US Supreme Court rulings have expanded Second Amendment protections for individuals. President Obama pushed for legislation to restore the assault weapons ban and expand background checks following the Newtown shooting, but these proposals failed to get through Congress. Earlier this year, the president used executive actions to increase the kinds of gun sales that are subject to background checks and to make the background check system more efficient. While one in four Californians—and a majority of California Republicans—say the president has gone too far in his actions on guns, most Californians say he has either taken the right amount of action (34%) or has not gone far enough (39%).

Californians may have the opportunity to vote on a new package of state gun regulations this fall. One potential ballot initiative would include, among other things, new regulations on ammunition sales. In recent PPIC Statewide Surveys, we’ve asked about the importance of several issues that may appear on the November ballot. Stricter gun regulation is one of only two issues considered to be very important by more than half of likely voters (the other is state bonds for school construction). Supporters of stricter gun laws are far more likely than opponents to say that this issue is very important to them (74% to 29%).

Chart note: Respondents were asked: “Please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. The government goes too far in restricting the rights of citizens to own guns; or the government does not do enough to regulate access to guns.”

Video: Senator Dianne Feinstein in Conversation

Underscoring her role in three contentious policy issues, California’s senior senator spoke to a Sacramento audience last week about filling the vacancy on the US Supreme Court, the dispute between Apple and the FBI, and drought relief.

Senator Dianne Feinstein urged speedy consideration of a nominee to replace the late Antonin Scalia on the court, saying that Senate can consider and confirm a new justice within 69 days—the average time for the process has taken in the past. She acknowledged that it would not be easy.

“I wish we could go back to the days when I first went to the Senate when the belief was that every president deserves his nominations,” she told Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, at the PPIC event.

Asked about the Apple controversy, she called on the company to reconsider its position and cooperate with the FBI to access data on a phone used by one of the San Bernardino killers. “Apple is not above the laws of the United States,” she said.

She said her position on the Senate Intelligence Committee—which occupies most of her time—gives her a perspective not shared by many on the dangers posed by terrorists.

Feinstein also detailed some of the provisions in her drought-relief bill, which would fund recycling, desalination, and water storage projects, as well as ease water trading.

She closed by describing her leadership style, saying she tries to “use the time to get things done. If I can’t do them through legislation, I’ll do them another way.”

Video: A Conversation with Legislative Leadership

At a PPIC event last week, Kevin de León, senate leader pro tem, and Chad Mayes, the Assembly Republican leader, were asked to name the top three issues the legislature should work on with the governor. Though the leaders come from different sides of the aisle, the list of issues they named before a large Sacramento audience had a lot in common. De León’s priorities began with income inequality between the coastal and inland regions, a “tale of two states.” He also listed water and making targeted investments, particularly in higher education. He went on to list a fourth issue: climate change.

Mayes named water and a lack of water infrastructure, and the many Californians left behind in the state’s economic recovery. His third issue was transportation, the focus of an ongoing special legislative session.

“Everywhere that I go in California,” he said, “I’m stuck in traffic. So we know there’s a problem.”

The leaders’ top issues dovetail with findings from the latest PPIC Statewide Survey in which Californians identify water and the economy as the most important issues for the legislature and governor to work on in 2016. 

Though De León and Mayes named similar priorities, there was much less agreement on solutions. But the two maintained a collaborative tone throughout their conversation, denounced what Mayes termed “demagoguery on the national stage,” and repeated their commitment to working together productively.

De León said the legislature can avoid being mired in bitter national political debates if leaders continue to work cooperatively to “get some real tangible victories for Californians.”

“We’re doing things very differently in the state of California,” he said.

Ideology and California’s Independent Voters

Nearly one in four California voters are registered with “no party preference,” and the share of these voters—commonly known as independents—has more than doubled over the past twenty years. Does the growing number of independent voters mean that California’s electorate is becoming less polarized?

Data from the PPIC Statewide Survey suggests that independent voters do not speak with one voice, and they are not, as a rule, more moderate than partisans. In our 2015 surveys, the overwhelming majority of independents say they lean toward either the Democratic Party (41%) or the Republican Party (30%), and these voters often share the views of the party they lean toward.

For example, independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party are about as likely as registered Democrats to call themselves politically liberal. Similarly, most Republican-leaning independents and registered Republicans call themselves politically conservative. The only group of independents who stand out as more politically moderate than partisan voters are the ones who lean toward neither party—a majority of these independents call themselves politically middle-of-the-road.

Political differences among independents also show up in responses to survey questions about specific issues. On immigration, Republican-leaning independents line up with registered Republicans in saying that overall, immigrants are a burden to California (55% and 61%), while solid majorities of both Democratic-leaning independents and registered Democrats say immigrants are a benefit to the state (80% and 72%). Regarding the taxation of oil extraction in California, Democratic-leaning independents and registered Democrats are in favor (61% and 55%), while Republican-leaning independents and registered Republicans are opposed (70% and 60%). Finally, majorities of Democratic-leaning independents and registered Democrats would prefer to use state budget surpluses to restore funding for social services (52% and 56%), while majorities of Republican-leaning independents and registered Republicans would prefer to pay down debt and build up reserves (73% and 76%).

These findings show that the 24 percent of California voters who are registered as independents do not all occupy the political center—and that these voters often diverge sharply from one another in their political ideologies and their opinions about specific issues.

Chart Source (TOP): Registration totals for Democrats, Republicans, independents, and other parties are from the California Secretary of State. The shares of independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, Republican Party, or neither party are estimated using PPIC survey data.

Would Making Voting Easier Increase Turnout?

In the wake of record-low turnout in both the primary and general elections in 2014, efforts to improve voter participation are under way. The senate is set to consider one reform—SB 450—that would require county election officials to mail ballots to every registered voter. Voters could return the ballots by mail or drop them off at vote centers that would be open during regular business hours for 28 days before elections. The PPIC Statewide Survey looked at the impact this reform might have on voter turnout.

We asked registered voters who do not always vote how likely they would be to do so in this scenario. Two in three (66%) said they would be very likely to vote. Strong majorities across parties concurred (72% Democrats, 67% independents, 65% Republicans), as did majorities across age, income, and education groups.

But this view is less frequently expressed among groups who are historically less likely to vote: Latinos (60%), voters age 18 to 34 (62%), those with only a high school diploma (59%), and those with household incomes under $40,000 (59%).

Attitudes about government matter as well. Those who say they have a great deal or a fair amount of interest in politics are much more likely than those with little or no interest to say they are very likely to vote (73% to 57%). And 69 percent of those who agree with the statement that voting gives “people like me some say in what government does” said they are very likely to vote. Among those who disagree with that statement, 60 percent said they are very likely to vote.

Overall, nearly half of registered voters who report that they vote part of the time, seldom, or never say this reform would make them very likely to vote (48% compared to 77% of frequent voters). These findings sugges
t that while this reform may not be a cure all, it could encourage Californians who say they don’t always vote to cast ballots more often.