Category: Workforce Needs

Highly Educated Workers See Strong Job Gains

Recessions and recoveries have the power to reshape our economy and workforce. In California, the latest recession and recovery have had very different consequences for workers based on their educational attainment levels. During the Great Recession, most job losses occurred among less educated workers, and the subsequent recovery has seen stronger gains for highly educated workers.

After declining to a nadir in 2010 with the Great Recession, the number of employed workers in California has grown substantially, increasing by 1.6 million among adults of prime working age (20 to 64) between 2010 and 2015, according to data from the American Community Survey. During the recovery, the rate of employment growth has been highest for workers with a bachelor’s degree or graduate degree (see chart). Even though high school graduates have also fared relatively well in the recovery, they suffered the most in the recession and recent gains have still not offset the job losses they sustained from 2007 to 2010.

These employment gains reflect the changing nature of our economy. Many of the fastest-growing occupations rely on highly educated workers, such as software developers, computer scientists, and management analysts. But other fast-growing occupations depend on less educated workers, such as taxi drivers and chauffeurs (including those that work for Lyft or Uber) and food preparation workers. Overall, occupations highly dependent on college graduates—those in which a majority of workers in 2010 had at least a bachelor’s degree—experienced a much faster rate of growth (14.1%) than occupations less dependent on college graduates (9.6%).

The changing nature of the state’s economy has also created regional winners and losers. The Bay Area, with its highly educated population, led the state in employment growth, adding more than 400,000 workers overall from 2010 to 2015, with college graduates making up 75% of those job gains (see chart). In contrast, the rate of employment growth was lowest in the San Joaquin Valley, where the demand for and supply of highly educated workers is relatively weak. In the Inland Empire and the San Joaquin Valley, college graduates accounted for only 20% and 17%, respectively, of employment gains.

California’s recovery from the Great Recession highlights the importance of the state’s higher education systems in providing meaningful economic opportunities for workers. Rather than being diminished by the most recent recession and recovery, a college education has emerged as an even more important determinant of labor market success.

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Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Can Mandatory College Entrance Exams Boost College Access?


This post is part of an occasional series examining how California can learn from policies in other states.

California ranks 47th out of the 50 states in the proportion of recent high school graduates that attend a four-year college. There are big recognizable barriers to attending a four-year college, such as cost. However, there are also smaller barriers—like taking a college entrance exam such as the SAT or ACT—that can keep students from even being eligible for entry to a four-year college.

Policy: Mandatory College Entrance Testing in High School

Several states have recently instituted statewide college entrance exams for high school students through allowances in the federal Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA), which mandates that states test their students for accountability purposes. The ESSA allows states to use college entrance tests as their high school tests. Students in states that use college entrance exams have one less hurdle to college eligibility, as well as experience taking the test and a signal of their level of college readiness. These benefits could help students make their way to a four-year college. Does the policy work?

Policy Impact

Because many states are only recently requiring a college entrance exam, there has not been enough time to analyze long-term trends. However, a 2015 study by Daniel Klasik evaluates the college-going behavior of students in three states (Illinois, Colorado, and Maine) that have long required all students to take national college entrance exams in high school. The study shows that statewide college enrollment may not necessarily increase, but students may have enrolled in different types of institutions than they otherwise would have. In Illinois and Maine the entrance exam policy was associated with a shift in enrollment away from public two-year colleges, which generally don’t require entrance exams; Illinois saw increases in four-year college attendance. Students in Maine and Colorado were more likely to enroll in institutions that required entrance exams for admission. All three states saw a positive impact on attendance at private four-year colleges.

Lessons for California

California currently uses the Smarter Balanced Assessment Consortium (SBAC) tests, which students take in grades 3-8 and 11. Of the fifteen states in SBAC, six use a college exam for federal accountability for their high schools and another three states require (and pay for) all students to take a college exam in addition to their normal state test.

The trend is catching on in California. Right now only 60% of students take the SAT, but several California districts are offering the test free to all students. In fact, Long Beach Unified School District recently asked the state if it could replace the SBAC test with the SAT, citing similar schoolwide accountability scores and the additional college-going benefits. The state declined, citing concerns about alignment with the Common Core State Standards, the ability of the SAT to accurately assess lower-performing students, and accommodations for students with limited English proficiency or learning disabilities.

But mandatory college entrance exams could remove a barrier to college entry for California students. As we have examined in prior research, the SBAC tests already link high school testing to college readiness at the California State University (CSU) and some community colleges through the Early Assessment Program. However, the University of California and many private schools still require a college entrance exam score. And while CSU does not require an entrance exam for all students, it does require an ACT or SAT score for students with GPA that is below 3.0 and for those applying to some impacted campuses or majors.

A statewide entrance exam program may not solve all of California’s enrollment issues—in part because California’s master plan limits entry to public universities and many campuses are not currently able to accept all qualified applicants. California could still benefit if the policy increases enrollment at four-year private schools, as students starting at four-year institutions are generally more likely to obtain a bachelor’s degree than those who start at a community college. In a state that is facing a 1.1 million degree gap by 2030, removing barriers to college entry is an important step toward producing more college graduates.

Video: Top Goals of Higher Education Leaders

California’s higher education system is not keeping up with the economy’s changing needs, PPIC research has shown. Falling behind in creating a skilled workforce could curtail economic growth, limit economic mobility, and increase inequality in the state. The leaders of the California Community Colleges (CCC), California State University (CSU), and University of California (UC) are essential in the effort to increase the number of educated workers, because the vast majority of the state’s college students attend public colleges and universities.

Hans Johnson, director of the PPIC Higher Education Center, summarized this research, and the three leaders of the higher education system sat down last week with Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, to talk about their goals before a large Sacramento audience.

The first question: What are your top goals in the next decade?

Eloy Ortiz Oakley, CCC chancellor, said it is a critical time for the 113-campus system. “We connect with so many Californians at a time when the economy is changing before our eyes, and the default to get into the workforce is no longer a high school diploma. Some sort of post-secondary credential is essential. That is our focus.”

He said he is working with the other higher education branches and the K–12 system to integrate them into “one public system of education, not four separate systems.”

Timothy White, CSU chancellor, had a similar focus on results. “Our number -one priority in the years ahead is to improve the success rates of our students,” he said, adding that just 20 percent of CSU students earn their degrees in four years. He said he wants to make sure CSU students have access to courses when they need to take them, as well as sufficient faculty and academic support.

Janet Napolitano, UC president, said, “My vision is that the University of California remain the top public university in the world.” Citing the recent growth in enrollment of in-state students, she said that sustaining academic excellence, increasing diversity, and producing students who will be the next generation of California’s leaders are all key parts of this vision.

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Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Testimony: Ensuring That More Students Succeed in College

Hans Johnson, director of the PPIC Higher Education Center and PPIC senior fellow, testified before the Assembly Budget Subcommittee Number 2 on Education Finance in Sacramento today (March 9, 2017). Here are his prepared remarks.

Thank you for the opportunity to testify this morning. My name is Hans Johnson and I am the director of the Higher Education Center at the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC is a nonpartisan policy research organization and does not take positions on legislation. My comments are based on research we have conducted at PPIC on California’s higher education system.

Providing affordable higher education opportunities for all Californians, especially those with limited resources, is essential if we are to realize the benefits of higher education for our state and its residents. Higher education is not only the single best predictor of an individual’s wages and income, but also the strongest determinant of a society’s economic well-being. PPIC has estimated that California’s colleges and universities are not producing enough bachelor’s degrees and will fall 1.1 million degrees short of economic demand by 2030 unless we improve access to and completion in our higher education systems. While economic gains are strongest for workers with at least a bachelor’s degree, recent PPIC research has also shown strong gains for many—but not all—students who complete vocational programs in the state’s community colleges.

One of the central challenges facing higher education today is ensuring that college serves as a ladder for economic and social mobility. This challenge is especially acute in California, where 60% of high school students are identified by the California Department of Education as socioeconomically disadvantaged (meaning they are eligible for free or reduced-price lunch or come from a family in which neither parent has graduated high school). To close the workforce skills gap, California needs to find ways to improve college completion among students from underrepresented groups, including Latino, African American, low-income, and first-generation students.

The good news is that, compared to other states, California’s public colleges and universities enroll a diverse population. Recent research by the Equality of Opportunity Project shows that California’s public universities enroll more low-income students than comparable colleges in the rest of the country. For example, among elite colleges, UCLA ranks first in the nation in the share of students from low- and middle-income backgrounds. Among all large public universities, Cal State Los Angeles ranks 2nd (after City College of New York) in economic mobility, propelling students from lower-income families into middle- and upper-income groups.

The challenge is ensuring that even more students succeed in our higher education systems. The University of California has an excellent track record of graduating low-income and underrepresented students, and California State University has made significant progress in improving graduation rates for all groups. But graduation gaps remain at both institutions. CSU has developed a new and ambitious graduation initiative that would substantially increase graduation rates and completely close graduation gaps by 2025. However, neither institution has been able to fully enroll all qualified applicants. In recent years, thousands of qualified Californians—both freshmen and transfer applicants—have been turned away from UC and CSU due to a lack of funding.

Of the state’s three systems of public education, our community colleges best represent the diversity of young Californians. The state’s community colleges provide higher education opportunities for almost two million students, a majority of whom are from low-income families or other underrepresented groups. However, far too many students who enter community colleges do not succeed: most never transfer to a four-year college or earn a degree or certificate. Hundreds of millions of dollars have recently been invested in efforts like the Basic Skills Initiative (BSI) and the Student Success and Support Program (SSSP) to improve student outcomes at California’s community colleges. These and other efforts—such as Guided Pathways, a new initiative to help students establish clear objectives and provide support to achieve their goals—hold a great deal of promise for improving student outcomes.

Expanding access to our public universities and improving outcomes throughout our higher education system will almost certainly take more resources. But using current and new funding to improve student outcomes in the most efficacious manner possible must be a high priority. Better coordination between UC, CSU, the community colleges, and our K–12 system can be a cost-effective way of providing students with a seamless pathway from high school to a higher education degree or certificate. Improving access and programs, including financial aid and student support services, to students with the most need can also help reduce gaps in educational attainment and economic success. The role of higher education officials and state legislators is to ensure that resources are spent on programs that really work for students. PPIC is already working on a number of projects that focus on improving student success, and we look forward to continuing to contribute to such efforts.

Bridging Equity Gaps in Health Career Training

California’s community colleges are the largest providers of workforce training in the state, offering a wide variety of career technical education (CTE) programs. Career training in health is particularly promising for students, as the health industry offers many in-demand, well-paying jobs for Californians with less than a bachelor’s degree. Health programs have higher completion rates than other CTE programs and attract a large and diverse student population. But gaps in achievement across student groups are a persistent problem.

PPIC’s latest report on career technical education in health provides detailed insights into the nature of equity gaps in student achievement. African American students are nearly 12 percentage points less likely to complete a health credential than their white peers. Latino students are about 6 points less likely.

To better understand racial/ethnic achievement gaps—and identify potential solutions—we examined three possible explanations: socioeconomic factors, program choice, and course-taking patterns. Individual demographic factors like age, immigration status, and economic disadvantage do matter, but cannot explain away the achievement gap. A student’s choice of health program also matters—that is, African American and Latino students are less likely to be enrolled in the health CTE programs with the highest completion rates, such as registered nursing and dental hygiene. But even after for controlling for socioeconomic factors and program choice, the racial/ethnic achievement gap persists (7 percentage points for African American students and 3 percentage points for Latino students).

By far the most consequential factor driving the racial/ethnic achievement gap in health programs is course-taking patterns—in particular, course progression patterns that are linked to student success. African American and Latino students are less likely to enroll full-time or in consecutive terms—these two patterns are strongly related to college completion. In addition, they are less likely to complete 30 or more units before entering the health program, another factor linked to future success. Finally, compared to white students who are otherwise similar, African American and Latino students are less likely to receive financial aid. Simply put, we find that if students entered similar programs and made similar progress course by course, the racial achievement gap would disappear.

These results suggest that there are many steps community colleges can take to alleviate completion gaps. In fact, systemwide efforts to support full-time attendance to and to guide students on choosing a program of study are among the reforms implemented through the Student Success effort in recent years. Our results suggest that efforts to enable underrepresented students to devote more time to their courses of study and pick up momentum toward their educational goals will do the most to reduce completion gaps. More information about the programs with the best completion rates and earnings potential can empower students to decide which career pathways to pursue. By identifying and addressing the drivers of inequity in CTE—in health as well as other programs—colleges can help more students take the crucial first step of earning a credential and then move along well-paying career pathways.

Learn more

Read the report Career Technical Education in Health: An Overview of Student Success at California’s Community Colleges
Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Equity and Remedial Education at Community Colleges

PPIC research has shown that students from groups that are historically underrepresented in higher education are more likely to take a remedial—or developmental—course at some point in their college career. Our research also shows that these students are less likely to complete a college-level course in math or English—and less likely to meet their educational goals. At a time when California faces a shortfall of college-educated workers, this has profound implications for the state’s future. Given that more than half of Latinos and African Americans who pursue higher education attend community college, policymakers need to focus on closing access and achievement gaps.

A recent PPIC report found that 87% of both Latino and African American community college students took at least one developmental math or English course, compared to 70% of Asian and 73% of white students. Likewise, 86% of recipients of fee waivers from the California Community Colleges Board of Governors (BOGW) or Pell Grants—our proxy for low-income status—took at least one developmental math or English course.

A closer look reveals that Latino, African American, and low-income students are likely to be placed in developmental education at lower levels than other groups of students. This requires students to take a longer sequence of developmental courses—up to four semesters’ worth—and dramatically alters college trajectories. African American and Latino students make up 61% of students who enter the developmental math sequence four levels below college ready, but only 41% of students who begin one level below. Similarly, the share of low-income developmental math students who start four levels below college ready (82%) is significantly higher than the share that begin one level below (64%). This means that Latino, African American, and low-income students are more likely to spend valuable time and financial aid on courses that do not count toward a degree or transfer.

Equity issues are apparent not only in students’ participation in developmental education, but also in their outcomes. When we examine the completion of college-level math and English courses among students who started out in developmental education, we find that rates are lower for most underrepresented groups. For example, 39% of Asian students and 30% of white students who took a developmental math passed a college-level math course, compared to 24% of Latino and 14% of African American students. The same pattern holds true for English, where 59% of Asian students and 49% of white students successfully completed a college-level English course, compared to 42% of Latino and 28% of African American students. However, low-income students who enrolled in developmental education courses completed college-level courses (26% math and 45% English) at about the same rate as developmental students overall (27% math and 44% in English).

It is also important to look at the assessment and placement policies that place students into developmental courses. Our research found that these policies vary widely across the state’s 113 community colleges. As a result, some Latino and African American students may be enrolling in developmental education at higher rates, especially in math, simply because they attend colleges that set higher cut-off scores for placement into college courses.

Our recent findings suggest that developmental education, which is intended to help students succeed in college, may actually be contributing to college achievement and completion gaps. A multipronged approach that improves developmental education courses and streamlines assessment and placement policies can lead to more equitable student outcomes.

Learn more

Read Preparing Students for Success in California’s Community Colleges
Read Determining College Readiness in California’s Community Colleges: A Survey of Assessment and Placement Policies
Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Immigrants Are Key to the State’s High-Skilled Workforce

Immigrants are integral to California’s highly skilled workforce. As California’s demand for highly educated workers has outpaced the supply produced by its colleges and universities, immigrants have filled the gap. Immigrants now make up a substantial share of the state’s highly educated workers. Today, three of every ten highly educated workers in California is an immigrant, up from one in five in 1990. Immigrants are especially important in the state’s high tech sector, comprising 52% of college graduates who work in computer systems design and services and 57% of those in computer equipment and peripheral manufacturing (findings based on the 2013‒2015 American Community Survey).

Over time, the face of immigration to California has changed. Recent immigrants are more highly educated than immigrants who arrived earlier. In the past, most immigrants arrived from Latin America. But in recent years, most new immigrants to California are from Asia. Because many immigrants from Asia are highly educated, this regional shift has contributed to a change in immigrants’ education levels. Immigrants who have arrived in California in the past five years are among the most highly educated demographic group in the state, with more than half (52%) holding at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 35% of US-born Californians.

Immigrants to California from the seven countries that are the focus of President Trump’s executive order —Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen—also tend to be highly educated. According to the 2015 American Community Survey, California is home to 305,000 immigrants from these countries—35% of the total number of immigrants from these countries in the nation—with most (213,000) from Iran. Altogether, almost half (47%) of adult immigrants (ages 25‒64) from these countries have a bachelor’s or graduate degree, including 54% of those from Iran.

Given the contribution of highly educated immigrants to California’s economy, and especially to the state’s high tech sector, it is no wonder that many companies and state officials have raised concerns about the president’s executive order.

PPIC has projected that California faces a workforce skills gap and needs to increase the number of adults with a bachelor’s degree by an additional 1.1 million to meet workplace demands by 2030. These projections assume that the state will continue to attract substantial numbers of highly educated immigrants from abroad. Restrictions on the flow of those immigrants could exacerbate the projected workforce skills gap—and cause significant damage to the state’s economy.

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Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Improving College Placement Policies

Assessment and placement policies govern where students begin their college trajectory. This is a high-stakes issue for students, affecting how quickly they achieve their educational goals. Too often, it affects their likelihood of reaching these goals at all. Students who are placed in developmental, or remedial, courses end up spending significant portions of their limited financial aid packages—and sometimes take on debt—to pay for courses that don’t usually count toward a degree.

Findings from a PPIC survey on assessment and placement policies show that California’s community colleges vary in how they identify college-ready students. First, colleges use different assessment tests. Second, even those that use the same test apply different cut-off scores, which are the minimum scores that a student must get to be designated college ready. While over half of colleges reported using the Accuplacer test to assess college readiness in math, cut-off scores ranged from 25 to 96 out of 120. Students with the median score of 58 would be deemed college ready at only half of these colleges, while at the other half, they would be placed into developmental math. This lack of consistency means that access to transfer-level courses is determined not only by students’ performance on the test, but also by placement policies at the institution where they enroll.

Unfortunately, there’s no easy fix to this problem, as opposing forces are at play. On one hand, the current approach of setting local assessment and placement policies allows for considerable academic freedom and institutional autonomy, giving colleges flexibility to respond to the local needs of the population they serve. This is particularly important for placement into developmental coursework, the structure of which varies significantly across colleges. On the other hand, locally determined cut-off scores into transfer-level courses lead to inconsistent standards and can send a confusing message to high schools around the state about what it means to be college ready.

Accordingly, placement into transfer-level courses should be uniform across the community college system. Having clearer and more uniform policies for accessing introductory transfer-level courses (e.g., college composition, college math, and statistics, among others) is critical because these courses are considered equal in the eyes of four-year institutions accepting them for transfer. Variation in the standards used to access these courses dilutes this presumed equality.

California State University (CSU) presents a compelling case study for a statewide system that has consistent assessment and placement policies for determining college readiness. Across the 23 universities in the CSU system, a common assessment and common cut-off scores are used for placement into transfer-level math and English. Yet individual campuses maintain flexibility regarding how they structure developmental education sequences and placement into these courses.

Systemwide assessment and placement policies at California’s community colleges could yield multiple benefits:

  • Eliminating barriers for students who transfer from one college to another. Clear and uniform policies for accessing transfer-level courses would begin to make students’ assessment results more portable across colleges, especially those in the same region.
  • Improving programs and support for students in developmental education. Currently, the lack of comparable data across colleges has prevented the system from measuring the effectiveness of interventions designed to increase student success in developmental education.
  • Sending a clear message to high schools about college readiness standards at community colleges. This would be akin to the uniform policy used by high schools and colleges across the state to determine college readiness as part of the Early Assessment Program (EAP).

Continuing to let community colleges determine placement into developmental education while standardizing placement policies into transfer-level courses will preserve local autonomy and help to bring about the benefits that come with systemwide uniformity.

Learn more

Read the report Determining College Readiness in California’s Community Colleges: A Survey of Assessment and Placement Policies
Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Video: Grading the Higher Education System

Californians give positive grades to the three branches of the state’s public higher education system—the community colleges, California State University, and the University of California. But the PPIC Statewide Survey on higher education shows that they have big concerns about affordability. Most California adults—regardless of political party, income, or age—see it as a big problem. And when Californians are asked to name the most important issue facing the state’s public colleges and universities, affordability leads the list.

“This is really the issue that’s at the forefront of people’s minds when you’re talking about higher education,” said PPIC researcher Lunna Lopes, who presented the findings at a Sacramento briefing last week.

Two out of three Californians say state funding of public colleges and universities is inadequate. While most would support a state construction bond to fund higher education projects, there is much less consensus on other ideas to increase revenue.

Learn more

Read the December PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Higher Education
Find out more about the PPIC Statewide Survey

Video: Strengthening Pathways to Health Careers

Health programs at California’s community colleges hold particular promise for helping students enter in-demand careers and addressing the state’s workforce needs, new PPIC research shows. These career technical education (CTE) programs, also known as vocational education, attract a large and diverse set of students. The state’s community colleges offer a broad range of programs—including nursing, respiratory therapy, medical and dental assisting, and health IT—that are linked to growing job opportunities in health services, a generally well-paying industry for Californians without a bachelor’s degree.

PPIC researchers presented two reports on the topic in Sacramento. Among the key findings summarized by report coauthor Shannon McConville: many students who have earned career tech credentials in health care have seen sizeable wage gains, and completion rates in these programs are relatively high. More than 70 percent of students who begin a program either obtain a degree or transfer to a four-year college within six years, while only about half of the overall CTE student population obtains a credential within six years.

But there is room for improvement. Completion rates vary substantially across health programs, ranging from 93% in dental hygienist programs to 44% in emergency medical services. And there are racial and ethnic achievement gaps across programs.

After the research presentation, an expert panel took up the topic. Anette Smith-Dohring, manager for workforce development at Sutter Health, underscored the need to diversify the health care workforce.

“We want our front-line health care providers to reflect the communities we serve because those are our patients,” she said. “We want them to come from [the] communities we serve—we don’t want to import health care providers.”

Linda Collins, executive director of the Career Ladders Project, which has worked with community colleges, said it is important both to expand career awareness of the range of allied health professions and to improve science proficiency in middle and high school. If a student has “a basic grounding in math and science from the high school level, that will allow a student to take almost any allied health occupation program and be successful,” she said.

All of the speakers provided examples of small-scale programs in community colleges that have improved student success rates—and expressed frustration that the funding has not been consistent enough to expand them.

Linda Zorn, statewide director of the California Community Colleges Health Workforce Initiative, summed up: “Programs that provide structure and clarity about what students need to take, and integrate both proactive and embedded student supports in the instructional experience, are critical.”

Learn more

Read Career Technical Education in Health: An Overview of Student Success at California’s Community Colleges
Read Health Training Pathways at California’s Community Colleges
Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center