Category: Workforce Needs

New CSU Admissions Policy Could Increase Access, Enrollment

Overcrowding at some California State University (CSU) campuses has had a serious effect on the system’s ability to increase the number of students graduating with bachelor’s degrees. This is an issue with broad implications for the state and for young Californians: PPIC research has shown that the CSU system will need to produce nearly half a million additional college graduates by the year 2030 to meet economic demand in California.

lack of space for new students is a problem at many csu compusesThe state’s most recent budget aims to alleviate overcrowding at CSU, a problem that stems from an enrollment policy dating back to 2000. Under this policy, campuses established local admissions criteria that went beyond systemwide requirements for high-demand academic programs like nursing, business, and psychology. Currently, 6 of the 23 campuses are what CSU calls “fully impacted,” meaning that admissions requirements for local students in every major are significantly higher than those required systemwide. At Fresno State, 32 of its 33 programs are impacted. With higher admissions requirements, impacted programs often turn CSU-eligible students away. However, the rest of CSU campuses have fewer than half of their academic programs impacted. Six campuses—Bakersfield, Channel Islands, Stanislaus, East Bay, Chico, and Dominguez Hills—have less than 10% of their academic programs impacted. Unfortunately, unlike the University of California system where eligible applicants to an oversubscribed campus are referred to open campuses, CSU applicants who were eligible systemwide but did not meet the admissions criteria of their chosen impacted major or campus were denied admissions and not referred to a non-impacted campus.

In 2015–16 alone, CSU estimates that the system turned away nearly 30,000 eligible applicants due to overcrowding. While this did not necessarily prevent all of these students from attending college (many are likely to have attended other four-year colleges or community colleges), the practice of denying admissions to eligible students creates an unnecessary barrier in the education pipeline. Students who begin their higher education at a community college, for example, are less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree.

The 2017–18 state budget requires that CSU change its admissions process. Under the new policy, campuses must give first priority to local students applying to impacted programs and must automatically redirect eligible applicants who are denied admission to similar programs at other CSU campuses that have space. Given that a recent study commissioned by the California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research found that nearly 41% of high school students are eligible for CSU systemwide admission—an increase of nearly 10 percentage points since 2007—the creation of a referral pool could provide students with additional information about nearby campuses that are not impacted, allow them to attend those campuses, and give them a chance to pursue the major of their choice. Furthermore, the creation of this referral pool could more efficiently disperse enrollments across the system’s campuses, increase capacity, and improve bachelor’s-degree attainment in California as a whole.

Learn more

Read center director Hans Johnson’s testimony about the workforce skills gap and CSU’s role in filling in.

Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center.

California’s Partisan Divide on Higher Education

New national polling shows a big divide has opened up between Democrats and Republicans on higher education. A Pew Research Center poll taken in June shows that a majority of Republicans and those who lean Republican (58%) think colleges and universities have a negative effect on the way things are going in the country, while a vast majority of Democrats and those who lean Democrat (72%) think colleges and universities have a positive impact. This is a big change from two years ago, when majorities in both parties said higher education institutions had a positive impact on the direction of the nation.

Is there a similar partisan divide over higher education in California? The PPIC Statewide Survey found a similar divergence over the past few years when we asked a different question: Is the state’s public higher education system generally going in the right or wrong direction? In 2016, California Republicans were far more likely than Democrats to say the system is headed in the wrong direction. This marked a change in the five years since we’d last asked this question. When we asked the question in 2011—toward the end of the recession and after large tuition increases—Californians in both parties overwhelmingly said higher education was moving in the wrong direction. Unlike national polling, which shows a shift in Republican opinion, PPIC surveys show a shift in the opinions of Democrats, who have become more positive, while Republicans have remained about the same.

Californians’ responses to other survey questions about higher education point to longer-term partisan divisions. Republicans have generally been more likely than Democrats to say that the overall quality of education in California’s public colleges and universities is a big problem or somewhat of a problem. Views about the direction and overall quality of public higher education are reflected in attitudes about California’s three public higher education systems. Currently about half of Republicans say that each of the systems—community colleges, California State University, and University of California—are doing an excellent or good job. More Democrats—about three-fourths—express this view.

Partisans have also historically differed on higher education funding. Compared to Republicans, Democrats are more likely to say that higher education does not receive enough funding, and Democrats are generally willing to pay higher taxes to support higher education.

Interestingly, there is some evidence that Californians’ views about the importance of college for individual success differ along party lines. A majority of Democrats (68%) say a college education is necessary for a person to be successful in today’s working world, while a majority of Republicans (72%) say there are other pathways to success. It is also true, however, that Californians in both parties have become more optimistic about the chances of success without a college degree since 2011—when the state was recovering from recession.

Finally, there are some areas of agreement. We find that members of both parties generally think that college affordability is a problem and students have to borrow too much money. Perhaps most significant is our finding that overwhelming majorities of both Republicans and Democrats say that the state’s system of higher education is important to California’s economic future and quality of life.

Learn more

Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Is College Worth it? What Graduates Say

As college registration deadlines approach, thousands of Californians are making important decisions to invest in their education and long-term career prospects. The vast majority of parents (85%) hope their child earns at least a bachelor’s degree, according to the PPIC Statewide Survey. But how do graduates see it? And how well-informed are their decisions?

The good news is that most people who earn degrees believe their investment was worth it. According to national survey data, 71% of those who earned an associate degree and 73% of those with a bachelor’s degree agree their education was worth the cost. Going beyond the economic value, a large share also find engagement in the work they do. In fact, a sizeable share of associate- and bachelor’s-degree holders report deep interest in their work (41% and 38%, respectively) or say that they have the ideal job (29% and 26%, respectively).

Although having an “ideal job” may be a very high bar to achieve, these results suggest that a majority of degree earners are not terribly satisfied or engaged with their work. Indeed, in a wider-ranging national survey conducted recently, a majority of college graduates indicate that they would change their degree, their college, or their major if they could do it again. Among associate-degree holders, 23% would seek a different degree—more than double the share of bachelor’s-degree holders who say the same. But graduates with bachelor’s degrees are not entirely satisfied with their choices either: 40% would study a different major (compared to 36% among associate-degree holders). And the survey finds curiously similar responses regardless of a person’s income level. Though higher-income Americans are slightly less likely to regret their college choices, a large fraction of them (35–45% for those with income over $100,000) would still make a different choice.

These results confirm that while college pays off, there is room to improve how well-informed prospective students are about their colleges, majors, and degrees. On this blog, we’ve written about the economic value of college credentials and how it varies across fields of study. We’ve also highlighted the need for data to inform student choices, given the sizeable financial commitment entailed.

Among the state’s public colleges and universities, California’s community colleges are ahead of the curve in providing information online about institutional performance, future salary, and more. Other institutions should follow suit. However, the survey results above suggest it is perhaps equally important to design courses and programs that ensure students can efficiently and effectively identify the degrees and majors best suited to them. Indeed, this is one of the tenets of the guided pathways movement taking place at community colleges across the country and in California. To inform and improve the college decisions of Californians, it is critical that these practices expand beyond community colleges, so that K–12 schools and four-year universities are also working to ensure students have comprehensive information when choosing their pathway into a career.

Learn more

Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

College Graduates Have Higher Net Worth

Compared to less educated adults, college graduates generally see much stronger labor market outcomes, including greater labor force participation, more employment, and higher wages. This holds true across every demographic group—age, gender, ethnicity, and nativity. These differences are well-measured and well-documented.

But what about wealth? Wealth is one of the most important indicators of economic well-being, but it is difficult to measure and therefore information on wealth is much less widely available. Using recently released data from the US Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), PPIC has developed new estimates of wealth for Californians. We focus on household net worth, the difference in value between all assets (including retirement accounts, savings accounts, investments, and real estate) and all liabilities (including mortgages, loans, and credit card debt).

The estimates show that Californians are wealthier than adults in the rest of the nation. In 2013, median household net worth among adults age 25 and over was $135,000 in California compared to $105,000 in the rest of the United States. While many have expressed growing concern about income inequality, the distribution of wealth is even more uneven—a fact that is especially apparent when we examine wealth by educational attainment. In California, median household net worth is almost four times higher for adults with at least a bachelor’s degree ($356,000) than for high school graduates ($95,000). (In the rest of the nation, the difference is slightly more than threefold.) One in four college graduates in California is a millionaire, compared to one in fourteen high school graduates.

For most people, wealth accumulates over time. As college graduates consistently earn relatively high incomes year after year, their wealth grows. One in five young college graduates (age 25–34) in California has negative net worth—meaning they have more debt, including student loan debt, than assets. But over time, debt recedes and wealth increases. Among college graduates who recently retired (those age 65–74) in California, half are millionaires.

Higher education has long been key to economic progress for individuals and for the state. In future research, PPIC will explore the role of higher education in promoting social and economic mobility. Ensuring that higher education continues to put people on the path toward economic well-being is a central policy issue.

Learn more

Read Higher Education in California: Addressing California’s Skills Gap
Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Regional Action to Boost College Success

California needs 1.1 million more workers with bachelor’s degrees by 2030 to keep up with economic demand, PPIC research has found. Three regions will play an especially critical role in addressing this challenge: Los Angeles County, the Inland Empire, and the San Joaquin Valley.

Improving college enrollment and graduation rates in these regions could help close more than half of this projected statewide skills gap, according to a new PPIC report, Meeting California’s Need for College Graduates: A Regional Perspective. It analyzes the challenges ahead and recommends ways to meet them. At a Sacramento event, report coauthor Kevin Cook summarized the findings and a panel of experts described promising initiatives already underway in these regions. Report coauthor Hans Johnson, director of the PPIC Higher Education Center, moderated the panel discussion.

Panelist Benjamin Duran, executive director of the Central Valley Higher Education Consortium, said his group has created a partnership of public and private colleges and universities, as well as community college districts, from Kern through San Joaquin Counties. One of the consortium’s projects involves improving remedial education, which has traditionally consisted of non-transferable classes that delay—and all too often end—students’ college careers. Under the newer approach championed by the consortium, students deemed underprepared for college work are able to enroll in college-level courses right away but also get supplementary support.

The Central Valley consortium is also working to encourage more students—particularly those in the community colleges—to take 15 units per semester or 30 per year so that more of them graduate on time. “When you’re able to go to school full time, the research is showing that you’re far less likely to drop out—you’re going to finish quicker,” Duran said.

Alma Salazar, senior vice president of the Center for Education Excellence and Talent Development at the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce, said, “We do what all great organizations do—we take someone else’s idea and try to make it better.” The result, she said, is the L.A. Compact, modeled after an effort in Boston. It is a collaboration among area organizations, educational institutions, unions, and local government leaders. The focus is on three goals:

  • All students graduate from high school;
  • All students have access to and are prepared for success in college; and
  • All students have access to pathways to sustainable jobs and careers.

Ken O’Donnell, associate vice president of the Student Success Program Integration and Assessment at California State University, Dominguez Hills, talked about his campus’s success in improving its six-year graduation rate from about 30% to 42% in a few years. O’Donnell echoed the PPIC report, which finds that improving success rates for those already in college will have the greatest impact on the statewide skills gap. “You’ve already improved capacity without adding a single additional seat,” he said.


Learn more

Read the report Meeting California’s Need for College Graduates: A Regional Perspective
Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

California is Still Golden for College Graduates

Over the past 15 years, 1.5 million more people have left California than have moved here from other states, according to estimates from the California Department of Finance. Remarkably, even in the face of this outflow, California still experiences net gains of college graduates (those with at least a bachelor’s degree). Over the past five years, California ranks second among all states in net gains of college graduates from other states, even as it ranks first in net losses of less educated adults.

From a demographic perspective, these patterns are unprecedented. In contrast to California, other states that gain large numbers of college graduates, such as Texas and Florida, also gain large numbers of less-educated residents. And states that lose large numbers of less-educated residents, such as New York and Illinois, also lose large numbers of college graduates. California is unique in gaining large numbers of college graduates while losing large numbers of less educated adults.

Why does California have such disparate migration patterns? People move across state lines for many reasons, but primary among them are jobs, housing, and family. California’s strong labor market for highly educated workers attracts college graduates from other states, while the state’s high cost of housing is especially hard on workers with less education and lower incomes.

California will face a large skills gap by 2030—it will be 1.1 million college educated workers short of economic demand if current trends in the demand for skilled workers and the educational attainment of the state’s population continue. Can migration fill this gap? No, but it can help. However, in 2015–16 the University of California awarded more than 50,000 bachelor’s degrees, the California State University awarded more than 90,000, and private non-profit colleges in California awarded almost 40,000—much more than the average annual migration gain of about 20,000 college graduates.

The best way to close the skills gap is to prepare more Californians for the economy of the future. The state can increase the number of home-grown college graduates by focusing on college readiness in K–12 schools, improving completion and transfer rates at all the state’s higher education institutions, and expanding access to four-year colleges. By taking action now, the state can realize big benefits in the future: higher incomes, more tax revenue, less demand for social services, and greater economic mobility.

Learn more

Read California’s Future: Higher Education
Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Federal Data Could Help Students Choose a College

Every year, hundreds of thousands of California high school seniors make significant financial decisions about whether and where to attend college. But students and their families currently have few options when it comes to knowing the financial costs and benefits of attending certain colleges and choosing certain majors.

A new federal bill would allow for a nationwide data system that could provide earnings information by college and major, among other data. The bipartisan bill, called the College Transparency Act, would allow student records from individual colleges to be submitted to the federal government and combined with earnings and financial aid information from the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) and the US Department of Education. Currently, the Higher Education Act prohibits connecting student-level information kept by colleges, such as a student’s enrollment and major, to earnings and aid data kept by federal agencies. This leaves students and parents in the dark as they try to weigh the economic benefits of colleges and majors against the rising costs of attending college.

What could a new federal data system mean for California?

California currently lacks a longitudinal statewide data system that can track students from college to work, and the information that is available to students has limitations. For example, the California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office provides the Salary Surfer, a helpful tool that presents salary information on community college graduates by program of study, using a combination of student data and data from the California Employment Development Department. But the Salary Surfer only includes those students who attended a community college and subsequently work in California, there’s no indication of whether students transferred to a four-year college to obtain a bachelor’s degree (which would likely affect earnings), and there’s no campus-level information.

A new federal data system could have some advantages over a state-run system. The market for higher education has become more national, and more Californians are choosing colleges outside of the state. In addition, some graduates of colleges in California leave the state to work, and their earnings can’t be recorded by a state-based system. A comprehensive federal database could help students compare schools across state lines and give a more complete picture of graduates’ earnings, even if they work in another state. Currently, the federal College Scorecard offers a helpful but limited look at earnings. The scorecard only has earnings information for those who receive some sort of federal financial aid and does not show earnings by major.

The proposed data system could fill existing blind spots in California’s databases and the current federal scorecard, providing information across state lines and earnings estimates for both colleges and majors within those colleges. Such a system could help students and parents more accurately weigh the costs and benefits associated with the important and sometimes expensive decision of whether and where to attend college.

Learn more

Visit the PPIC Higher Education Center

Educational Progress Stalls in California

California is known as an engine of economic growth and innovation in the United States and across the world. A highly educated workforce has long gone hand in hand with the state’s robust economy.

California’s historically strong commitment to higher education—providing low-cost access to public colleges and universities at a time of rapid population growth—led to a large increase in college enrollment and completion. Baby boomers who were of prime college age during the 1960s and 1970s benefited from that expansion. Today, those boomers are the best-educated adults of that generation in the developed world. Older working-age adults (age 55–64) in California are more likely to have a bachelor’s degree than in any of the 32 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Is California’s younger generation keeping up with other countries?

Unfortunately, generational progress in college completion has nearly stalled in California. Although more California high schoolers are completing their diploma today than 30 years ago, the share that subsequently earns a bachelor’s degree has not changed much: 33% of those age 25–34 in California today have at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 31% of those age 55–64. Other countries have made much stronger progress. Indeed, the share of college attainment among young adults in California ranks 22nd of the 32 OECD countries, and the state’s generational progress is dead last.

The lack of generational progress in California is a cause for concern. College attainment not only benefits individuals’ earnings and employment prospects but also contributes to California’s economy by attracting businesses and keeping the state competitive in an increasingly globalized marketplace. Increasing the share of high school graduates eligible for the state’s public universities could help improve educational attainment among California’s young adults.

blog figure

Guided Pathways in Community College

In California and across the country, community colleges are working hard on reforms aimed at increasing college completion, particularly among students historically underrepresented in higher education. Yet many promising innovations have not moved the needle. One reason is that many of these reforms, while innovative, focus on only a small proportion of the student body, or improve only one part of the students’ college experience. As a result, colleges have begun to adopt a more comprehensive institutional reform known as “guided pathways.”

Guided pathways are based on a set of scalable design principles, outlined in the 2015 book Redesigning America’s Community Colleges: A Clearer Path to Student Success. These principles include

  • Helping students choose and enter a program pathway
  • Mapping pathways to students’ end goals
  • Keeping students on path
  • Ensuring that students are learning

Implementation may occur in a variety of ways, but colleges have found it essential to focus on the following areas:

  • Guided exploration for undecided students. This includes clustering hundreds of programs into a handful of broad focus areas. In addition, some colleges offer foundational courses to help students select a major. In some cases, all students enroll in a foundational course within their broad field of interest. Mentored by faculty, students may research different careers, interview or shadow individuals in a particular field, and get a taste of the different competencies within each major while honing their research skills.
  • Clearly delineated program requirements. Cross disciplinary teams of instructional and counseling faculty, staff, and administrators create “program maps” to show the path necessary for labor market success and further education. Students may take elective courses that are not on the program map, but they will also know which courses each program requires.
  • Proactive and integrated academic and non-academic support. When support services are optional, students may fail to identify the services they need or lack the confidence to ask for help. Services can take many forms, from embedding academic support in the classroom to providing specialized counselors. At Guttman Community College in New York City, an entering group of students is split into “houses,” and a team of instructional faculty, counseling faculty, and peer mentors is responsible for each house. Faculty and peer mentors meet regularly to discuss individual student progress, coordinating their actions and communications with each other and the students.
  • Developmental education transformation. Developmental education—also known as remedial education or basic skills—has traditionally focused on courses such as college algebra and English composition. Reforms would create accelerated pathways aligned with a small set of broad programs (e.g., liberal arts, STEM, business, and health). Our recent research has found that the reform efforts happening across the state—for example, as part of the California Acceleration Project—are well positioned to create developmental education pathways that are better aligned to programs of study. PPIC’s ongoing research aims to shed light on the most promising developmental education reforms.

Opportunities for California Community Colleges
The last six months have seen tremendous momentum and support for guided pathways in California. This support has emerged at all levels, including the governor, legislature, the Chancellor’s Office, national foundations, and college faculty and administrators. Last month, with the support of the College Futures Foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the James Irvine Foundation, and the Teagle Foundation, the Chancellor’s Office awarded grants to twenty colleges as part of The California Guided Pathways Project. Last year, three community colleges in California were awarded the American Association of Community Colleges Pathways grant to assist them with planning and implementing a pathways framework. In addition, the Governor’s Budget proposal for 2017‒18 includes $150 million one-time Proposition 98 funds to support new guided pathways programs in community colleges. Finally, Senate Bill 539, introduced during the 2017 legislative cycle, proposes to use an incentive grant to help establish guided pathways that would boost completion and transfer. Given this wide-ranging support, much can be learned from the experiences in other states and systems. It will also be critical for colleges to conduct deep examinations of how existing college initiatives, such as those involved with the Basic Skills Student Outcomes and Transformation program, can be integrated into guided pathways. In an upcoming blog post, we will explore how developmental education reform intersects with the guided pathways framework..

Students Choose College with Future Jobs in Mind

Throughout California and the nation, hundreds of thousands of high school seniors are currently making decisions about where to attend college. An increasingly important part of that decision is based on career opportunities. PPIC’s statewide survey on higher education finds that the vast majority of Californians (77%) believe the state’s higher education system is very important to the economic vitality of the state.

Students’ career goals play an important role in the decision to go to college at all. According to an annual nationwide survey of freshmen conducted by UCLA’s Higher Education Research Institute, the vast majority of students agree that a very important reason to go to college is “to be able to get a better job” (85%) and “to get training for a specific career” (76%). A record-high 60% of students say that a very important consideration in choosing a college is the ability of its graduates to obtain good jobs.

Students are right in thinking that college can give them economic advantages. Using data from the 2014 and 2015 American Community Survey, we examine some basic labor market outcomes for recent college graduates (ages 22 to 29) in California. The advantages in terms of employment and wages are clear. Young adults with a college degree are much less likely to be unemployed and, on average, earn far higher wages.

Of course, not all majors are equal when it comes to career opportunities. Among young adults with a bachelor’s degree, wages vary widely by major. Among the ten most popular majors for young adults in California, the most remunerative major is computer and information sciences; young workers with those degrees earn more than twice as much as young workers who majored in psychology. But even among those paid least, wages are still substantially higher than those of less educated workers.

Students attend college for many important reasons beyond economics. But because career opportunities are an important consideration for most, state policymakers and higher education institutions should seek ways to provide students with accurate and meaningful information about labor market outcomes by college and by major. The American Community Survey does not provide information for specific colleges nor for community college certificates, but public colleges in California can link student records with wage records from the Employment Development Department. For example, California’s community colleges have created a “Salary Surfer,” which offers useful information on wages for students contemplating different career paths and provides a good model for other colleges to follow.