What do droughts in California and Australia have in common, and what lessons from Down Under are best-suited to managing mega-droughts here? At a recent conference of agricultural economists, Americans and Australians shared their experiences and research on the topic.
The meeting covered what worked well—and what did not—in managing Australia’s Millennium Drought, which lasted from 1997-2009. The “worked well” list included: water conservation in urban areas, water pricing, and cooperative governance among water managers. The Australians also depended heavily on water markets to reduce the costs of their mega-drought. The flexibility and autonomy offered by water trading helped communities allocate water quickly and efficiently to competing uses, and also provided an effective way to recover it for the environment.
Several researchers noted that water trading is an important drought response that deserves much wider use in California. Speakers noted that although trading has helped some here, California’s water market still lacks transparency—with only limited information available about trading rules, volumes, and prices.
Australians also benefited from a strong water policy foundation going into their mega-drought, including a national water initiative. This national agreement (which state and territorial governments agreed to abide by) focused on ensuring reliable water use information that is publicly shared, and also mandated the separation of land ownership and water access. These two factors have helped facilitate water management, sharing, and marketing. While separating land and water ownership may not be in the cards for California, there are other ways to improve water marketing here by strengthening water-use information. As elaborated in a 2015 PPIC report on managing our drought, several other policy priorities that were at play in Australia are also within our reach: setting clearer priorities for public health and the environment, managing demand and supply more stringently, and implementing progressive environmental drought management practices.
Australians were able to create a more resilient water system, but some researchers at the conference noted that their drought management was not without fault. One cautionary tale was that much of the costly new infrastructure put into place in response to the drought—mainly desalination and inter-basin pipelines—brought increased water supply benefits only after the drought ended, due to the time it took to plan and build desalination plants, in particular. While desalination is currently providing drinking water in Western Australia, where dry conditions have continued, plants built to serve communities in other regions have not been used because cheaper alternatives are once again available.
A key recommendation made by a number of panelists was to ensure that all other options are exhausted before moving forward with costly infrastructure projects like desalination. In addition, it’s important to take other steps to develop sound policy in areas like water information before the next drought. Because droughts are unpredictable but cyclical, long-term vision and preparedness are critical.
The takeaway from the meeting was that while the challenges and debates in California are similar to those during Australia’s Millennium Drought, the comparison is not perfect. As we continue to adapt and develop our own drought policies, it will be important to take lessons from both the successes and ongoing challenges experienced during Australia’s “big dry.”
Adam Soliman is a graduate student in agricultural, food, and resource economics at Michigan State University. He served as an intern at the PPIC Water Policy Center this summer.
To the right we present results for the CST and the Smarter Balanced tests, alongside California students’ scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), a national ongoing assessment of what children know in a variety of subject areas. While these three test results are not directly comparable because each measures competence relative to different standards and each has its own definition of what it takes for a student to score “proficient,” it is important to have a clear sense of how our students are faring on each. The Smarter Balanced test results for each student group are higher than the NAEP, but low relative to the most recent CST. 
California’s public school system has seen dramatic changes in recent years, and the 2014–15 Smarter Balanced test results are an important baseline to measure how these changes are affecting students. In the past, California students’ test results improved almost every year that the CST was administered. Today, both the Common Core State Standards and the LCFF aim to improve outcomes for all students and close achievement gaps. Multiple years of Smarter Balanced test results will be needed to monitor progress. These new higher standards are meant to improve outcomes well beyond secondary schooling, and the least advantaged students have the farthest to go. The new curriculum and new funding should help get them there.
As of August 2015, the total prison population had dropped by almost 45,000 inmates from its 2006 peak. The majority (about 55%) of the decline was a result of realignment, which was implemented in October 2011 in response to a court order to improve prison conditions by reducing overcrowding. However, it took the passage of Proposition 47 last November—which reclassified a number of felony drug and property offenses as misdemeanors—and building and renting additional prison beds to reach the court-ordered population target of 137.5 percent of design capacity. The prison population has declined by almost 7,700 since November and has remained below the mandated target since January 2015. This is a key requirement for the state to regain control over prison health care—currently, a court-appointed receiver oversees health care in the system.
Although we can see that prison population numbers have dropped in each of the nine months since Proposition 47 passed, we need to be more cautious about the measure’s impact on jail population numbers because we only have jail data for the first two months. Also, counties have been working to implement and refine new jail policies and procedures, and these may be having an impact on jail populations. For instance, data through March 2015 for Los Angeles County show that the jail population dipped below 16,000 inmates in December (down from more than 18,000 in October), but rose above 17,000 in January and stayed above 17,000 through March. This increase is related to the sheriff requiring that inmates serve a larger percentage of their sentences before release. We may see similar developments in other counties. Nonetheless, even in Los Angeles there was a noticeable drop in the jail population compared to months before passage of Proposition 47. 
PPIC:
The California Legislature is considering bills that would expand state efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. One, SB 32, would require that California reduce emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Another, SB 350, would require that petroleum use in cars be reduced by 50 percent, half of the state’s electricity come from renewable energy sources, and buildings double their energy efficiency—all by 2030. 
Within the parties and among independents, registered voters who think global warming has contributed to the drought are far more likely to support the ideas in these bills than those who don’t. Among Republicans, solid majorities of those who think global warming has contributed to the drought also support SB 32 and SB 350. Meanwhile, among Democrats and independents who do not think global warming has contributed to the drought, support for SB 350 drops to about half or less. 
California currently supports community college education for all low-income students, including inmates, through fee waivers. However, these waivers are not available for students who wish to pursue four-year degrees. These students rely on other forms of aid, including federal Pell Grants. The Pell Grant pilot program presents an opportunity for CSU to begin working with CDCR to leverage federal dollars to expand access to high-quality, onsite higher education for inmates in state prison.