Tag: Proposition 30

Video: Californians’ Views of K–12 Education

Despite increases in state spending on K–12 education, most Californians say state funding for their local public schools is inadequate. And most support an extension of the Proposition 30 tax increase on higher incomes, as well as state and local school bonds. These are among the key findings in PPIC’s 12th annual survey on Californians and education that were presented in Sacramento last week by Lunna Lopes, survey research associate.

Lopes said that concerns about the quality of education are at a record-low 40 percent, and less than a third of Californians say that teacher quality is a big problem. Concern about a teacher shortage is higher, with a majority calling it a big problem.

Among the other findings discussed:

  • There are partisan divisions on Common Core, but public school parents are confident that it will help students be college ready and develop critical thinking skills.
  • Few Californians have heard about Local Control Funding Formula, but when presented with a short description of the policy, most are supportive.
  • Californians see preschool as important for K–12 success and most prefer to spend some of the state budget surplus on early childhood education programs.

Californians’ Views on Taxes

As Tax Day approaches, how are Californians feeling about their state and local tax system? In our March PPIC Statewide Survey, most Californians see the system as fair. But when asked about their personal state and local tax burden, a majority of residents (56%) said they pay more than they should. A little over one-third of Californians (37%) said they pay the right amount in state and local taxes, while only 4% said they pay less than they should.

Opinions about taxes differ across political and demographic groups. Republicans are more likely than independents, and far more likely than Democrats, to feel they pay more than they should in taxes. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks are the most likely to feel they pay more than they should in state and local taxes.

This year’s filing deadline reminds residents of their tax burden in the midst of an election year which will likely see Californians vote on state and local tax measures. In our survey, we found that Californians who feel they pay more than they should in taxes have different preferences for the size of government and the extension of Proposition 30 income tax on earnings over $250,000. Indeed, an overwhelming majority of Californians who feel they pay the right amount in taxes say they favor extending the Proposition 30 income tax increase to fund health care and education (80%). But less than half of those who feel they pay more than they should in taxes say the same (49%).

Perceived personal tax burden also appears to affect support for smaller government. Half of Californians who feel they pay more than they should say they prefer a smaller government with fewer services, compared to only a quarter of those who feel they pay the right amount in taxes (51% vs. 25%). Finally, when we asked if most Americans demand more from the government than they are willing to pay for, most Californians—whether they feel they pay too much in taxes or the right amount—said yes.

Though Tax Day reminds us of our personal tax burden every year, this annual reminder may take on added significance when Californians head to the polls this year to have their say on specific tax and spending measures.

Video: PPIC Survey Examines Election Landscape

As California heads into an election year, the PPIC Statewide Survey looks at residents’ views on a broad range of issues that are already flashpoints in the presidential primary races and will likely surface in statewide campaigns next year.

PPIC research associate Lunna Lopes presented the survey’s key findings at a Sacramento briefing last week. She was joined by Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, for a question and answer session afterward. He noted a link between Californians’ “modestly optimistic view of the economy,” their belief that there is income inequality in the state, and their attitudes about which ballot issues are important. Twice as many residents say that increasing the state minimum wage is very important than say legalizing marijuana is very important.

“In California, the belief that this state is divided into the haves and have-nots—and the feeling among many Californians that they are among the have-nots—are going to be driving forces in the election,” he said. The survey briefing was held just after the mass shooting in San Bernardino, and the briefing touched on Californians’ views about gun laws. PPIC research associate David Kordus provided findings from the September survey on this issue: Compared to adults nationwide, Californians are more likely to favor stricter laws than we have now. Most also say that controlling gun ownership is more important than protecting the right of Americans to own guns.

Tax Increases and Voter Distrust

The California budget passed on time and without much drama this June, as tax revenues once again exceeded expectations because of the improving economy. The new budget will increase education spending, restore some human services funding cuts, pay down the government’s debt, increase the rainy day fund for future recessions, and support drought emergency funding—all without any new taxes. Still, many lawmakers and advocacy groups argue that the state’s tax system must change in order to generate adequate revenues for current spending while making future investments. In this context, the governor has called for special legislative sessions to find new funding for rising health care costs and transportation projects. At the same time, several interests groups are preparing tax initiatives for the November 2016 ballot.

Many political experts believe that the upcoming general election will be the most opportune time in the next four years to ask California voters to raise their taxes. The presidential race is likely to produce a high voter turnout and, specifically, a more youthful and liberal electorate with pro-tax leanings. Voters are currently in a relatively good mood about state leaders and their own finances.

In our May poll, we tested support for five tax proposals that are being considered by the legislature and tax proponents. Support among likely voters for four of the five proposals was underwhelming (41% sales tax extension, 46% Proposition 30 tax extension, 47% oil and natural gas severance tax, 50% commercial property tax increase, 67% cigarette tax increase). What explains voters’ reluctance to increase state taxes?

For one thing, despite improved fiscal conditions the widely-held perception that “the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes” has hardly budged in four years (58% May 2011, 57% May 2015). Today, across all political and demographic groups, large proportions of likely voters say that there is a lot of wasted tax money.

Meanwhile, the perception that the state’s budget situation is a “big problem” is down sharply from four years ago (82% May 2011, 52% May 2015). Still, a majority holds this negative fiscal view even during these exceptionally good times. And there is an important connection between these two fiscal perceptions: among the likely voters who say the state’s budget situation is a big problem, 78% say that the people in state government waste a lot of tax money.

Notably, support for all five of the tax proposals is significantly lower among those who say that the state government wastes a lot of money. Even for the cigarette tax increase, two-thirds favor falls to 58% in this group, indicating that support for this popular tax proposal could erode in an election campaign. In sum, voter distrust will be a big hurdle for gaining majority support for new taxes in 2016.

Tax proponents may take solace in the fact that a majority of likely voters say that the state and local tax system is in need of major changes. However, support for making major tax changes has declined as the state’s budget situation has improved (65% January 2011, 54% May 2015). And the desire for major tax changes is tied to distrust: 70% with this view say that the state government wastes a lot of money.

Majority support for the Proposition 30 tax increase in November 2012 offers a textbook example of how the stars can align in a presidential election. But the PPIC poll tells us that voter distrust is a major obstacle even in good budget times. Voters will want assurances that current funds are well managed but inadequate—and that new taxes are needed for essential purposes. The special sessions could be a unique opportunity to begin a public dialogue about the fiscal ingredients necessary for creating a better future for all Californians.

The Importance of California’s Tax Ranking

California voters are often asked to make important tax and spending decisions at the ballot box, yet their mastery of basic fiscal facts is poor. PPIC’s surveys have consistently found a “knowledge gap” between what voters know and budget realities. In our January PPIC survey, just 8 percent of likely voters correctly named both K-12 public education and the personal income tax as the top state spending and top state revenue areas. The voters failed to grasp the state’s budget details even when the fiscal crisis took center stage and California grappled with massive deficits, spending cuts, and tax increases.

But survey respondents just passed another fiscal pop quiz with high marks. With the April 15 tax deadline approaching, seven in 10 likely voters in the March PPIC survey say that California currently ranks “near the top” (45%) or “above average” (26%) in state and local tax burden per capita compared to other states. Large majorities gave this response in earlier PPIC polls. In this area, the public’s perceptions are in line with fiscal reality.

California’s tax ranking varies depending on data and methods, but we are always on the high side in national studies of the 50 states. Recently, California ranked #4 in the Tax Foundation report and #15 in the Tax Policy Center report on state and local tax burdens. The reasons include our high cost of living and the public investments that we are making in our education system, environmental quality, and infrastructure.

What is most striking is the growing share of likely voters who say that California’s state and local tax burden is “near the top.” In the March PPIC poll nearly half (45%) express this view. The increasing number of voters who perceive the tax burden this way runs counter to other trends: the governor’s and legislature’s approval ratings are rising, more Californians say that the state is headed in the right direction, more say the economy is experiencing good times, and fewer say the state government is in a budget crisis.

Interestingly, the growing perception that California’s state and local tax burden is “near the top” is taking place in the years since the voters passed the Proposition 30 tax increases in November 2012.

Two groups known for their anti-tax sentiment—Republicans (50%) and conservatives (52%)—are predictably among the most likely to say that our state’s tax burden is near the top. Surprisingly, though, this view is widely held in more politically diverse circles—those annually earning $80,000 or more (58%), independent voters (52%), those living in households with children (51%), college graduates (49%), Latinos (48%), and homeowners (47%). About four in 10 Democrats (38%) and liberals (44%) also say that their state’s tax burden is near the top.

Importantly, the view that California is a national leader in high taxes has implications for fiscal preferences. Likely voters are closely divided on a Proposition 30 tax extension (48% favor, 45% oppose). But the majority (55%) of those who oppose a Proposition 30 tax extension say the state’s tax burden is near the top. Most likely voters say they want major (53%) or minor (31%) changes in the state and local tax system. The majority (52%) who want major changes also say that the state’s tax burden is near the top.

There are many reasons why tax proposals are a tough sell even in Blue California. They include high government distrust and little fiscal knowledge. We have identified a major force to be reckoned with as tax initiatives take shape for the 2016 ballot: a widely held perception that Californians are among the most burdened with state and local taxes in the nation. Tax proponents will have to convince voters that their plans will improve California’s ranking—as the state with the most promising future.

Video: PPIC Statewide Survey Briefing

As discussions continue in Sacramento about drought relief, funding for higher education and transportation projects, and an extension of Proposition 30 tax increases, PPIC surveyed public opinion on these and many other topics. At a briefing last week in the capital, PPIC researcher Jui Shrestha provided the survey findings. Among the key points:

  • Two-thirds of Californians say the regional water supply is a big problem, and two-thirds say people in their part of the state are not doing enough to respond to the drought.
  • While most adults say that spending money on the maintenance of California roads, highways, and bridges is very important, there is little support for increasing the gasoline tax or vehicle registration fees to do so.
  • Half of Californians favor extending the Proposition 30 tax increases, and about a third favor making them permanent.

The Debate Over Extending Proposition 30

One of the most controversial issues that the governor and legislature face in 2015 is what to do about the Proposition 30 tax increase. This citizens’ initiative passed with a 55% yes vote in November 2012. The governor says this tax increase is meant to be temporary. But others say that the state budget situation has improved because of Proposition 30, and it could deteriorate if we allow the sales and income tax increases to fully expire in 2018. In the most recent PPIC Statewide Survey, 52% of likely voters would favor a Proposition 30 tax extension. We found identical results in our December 2014 poll. A slim majority of support suggests that a tax extension is in the realm of the possible but far from a sure thing.

Why the sense of urgency? Tax proponents say that the November 2016 presidential election offers the last chance for a high turnout among voters who are likely to support a Proposition 30 tax extension before its sunset in 2018. Our most recent poll confirms this view. Support for the tax extension falls short among the likely voter groups with the highest propensity to vote: Republicans (30%), whites (49%), homeowners (48%), age 55 and older (50%), and those with annual incomes of $80,000 or more (45%). Support is highest among these lower-propensity likely voter groups: Democrats (69%), Latinos (68%), those under age 35 (61%), renters (61%), and those with annual incomes under $40,000 (59%). As these numbers suggest, it would be a riskier proposition to wait until the 2018 gubernatorial election for a tax extension vote.

Many observers think that the voters will take their cues from Governor Brown if they are asked to weigh in on this issue. After all, it was the governor who brought this tax measure to the voters when the legislature failed to act. In our latest poll, most likely voters—58%— approve of the governor’s job performance, and most who approve of Brown also favor a tax extension (69%). Also, those who prefer Governor Brown’s approach to the state budget over their Democratic and Republican legislators overwhelmingly favor a tax extension (75%). In sum, Brown’s position on the tax extension will matter. But no one is certain whether he will actively support or openly oppose a tax extension in 2016.

Some are looking to tweak the current Proposition 30 tax increase to gain more favor with the voters. There are calls, for example, for the creation of another temporary tax increase instead of making the Proposition 30 increases permanent. That may help gain voter support, but we have no PPIC polling data suggesting that voters supported Proposition 30 because it was temporary. Others argue that the tax on earnings over $250,000 should continue while the one quarter cent sales tax is allowed to expire. This might well improve the chances of passage and is consistent with our past polls, which show majority support for raising taxes on wealthy Californians and majority opposition to a state sales tax increase.

What is missing from this political calculus? A selling point of the Proposition 30 tax increase was its beneficiary: K-12 education. In our past polling, Californians have ranked K-12 education as their highest spending priority. However, relatively few (correctly) perceive that K-12 education is now the largest area of state spending.

Our recent poll shows that the knowledge gap is wide when it comes to the state budget: 57% of likely voters say that K-12 education is their highest priority for state spending, but just 19% are able to cite K-12 education as the largest area for state spending today. Among the likely voters whose top spending priority is K-12 education, 54% are in favor of a tax extension. Among those who think the state’s top spending category is something other than K-12 education, 56% are in favor of a tax extension. But among those who accurately say that K-12 education is the state’s top spending area, just 35% favor extending Proposition 30.

Our survey also asked what is the one issue facing California today that is most important for the governor and legislature to work on this year. Among the likely voters who named K-12 education, 65% are in favor of a Proposition 30 tax extension. In sum, the fate of a Proposition 30 tax extension in 2016, as was the case for Proposition 30 in 2012, will likely depend on how the voters perceive its effects on K-12 education.

The November 2016 presidential election offers the best chance to include the most voters in this contentious issue. And, as our recent poll shows, Californians want a role in fiscal decisionmaking. An overwhelming 76% of likely voters say they prefer that voters make some of the decisions about spending and taxes at the ballot box, while just 21% say that they want the governor and legislature to make all of these decisions. Why not give the voters a chance to hear the pros and cons in a debate that can also help increase knowledge about the budget and give them the role they want to determine California’s future?

California’s New Leaders Focus on Poverty

Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins and Senator Kevin de León, who will take over as senate president pro tem later this month, each told a Sacramento audience about growing up in poverty and the role it has played in their shared view of the state’s responsibility to those in need.

“We share similar values and similar stories that have made us care about the values and the issues that we’re talking about today,” said Atkins, who was raised in a poor, rural Virginia family and now represents the San Diego area. De León, who was born in San Diego and represents Los Angeles, said he is the youngest child of a single immigrant mother and the only family member to graduate from high school. Atkins and de León, both Democrats, were elected by their respective legislative chambers earlier this year to serve as leaders.

Both lawmakers cited a recent PPIC report — Child Poverty and the Social Safety Net in California by Caroline Danielson and Sarah Bohn — that said about 50% of California children live in poverty or near-poverty. The remarks, part of the PPIC 2014 Speaker Series, were made to a capacity audience of about 400 in the ballroom of the Sheraton Grand Hotel. The discussion was moderated by PPIC President Mark Baldassare and streamed live to hundreds more.

The wide-ranging conversation touched on a number of major issues—including health care, the drought, immigration, and taxes. Both leaders said that they believe the state should talk about changes to the state tax structure and consider whether to extend the temporary taxes that voters passed in Proposition 30. Atkins cautioned that it will be difficult to gain support from voters for an extension of the taxes.

De León expressed strong support for affirmative action, which he credited for his ability to attend college and become a legislator. He also said California should continue to lead on immigration issues because the federal government has been unable to pass a reform plan. And he noted that polls suggest Californians support health coverage for undocumented residents.

Atkins, meanwhile, encouraged more cities to follow San Francisco and San Jose, which recently increased the minimum wage. Both leaders also said they have worked together in the past and believe they will have a good working relationship going forward.